智算中心专题2：柴发国产替代+量价齐升共振

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [6] Core Insights - Diesel generator sets are critical backup power sources for data centers, with engines being the most significant cost component, accounting for approximately 50-60% of total material costs [12][16] - The demand for diesel generators is expected to rise sharply due to increasing AI infrastructure needs driven by domestic internet companies [2][19] - Domestic suppliers of diesel generators are poised to benefit from rising prices and demand, particularly those with upstream supply chain advantages and resources in the internet sector [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Diesel Generators as Key Configurations - Diesel generator sets are essential for data centers, providing longer power backup compared to UPS systems, which only offer short-term power during outages [9] - Diesel generators account for about 23% of non-IT equipment investment in data centers [11] 2. Increasing Supply-Demand Imbalance - The demand for high-power diesel generators is increasing, with prices showing significant upward trends; for instance, the average winning bid for 2MW high-pressure water-cooled diesel generators increased by 25% and 31% for different suppliers from 2022-2023 to 2025-2026 [17][18] - The supply side is dominated by foreign companies, which are currently facing production pressures and longer expansion cycles, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [23][26] 3. Opportunities for Domestic Suppliers - Domestic manufacturers are expected to experience a rise in both volume and price due to the tightening supply of high-power diesel generators and the potential for domestic substitution [30][32] - Key beneficiaries include companies like KOTAI Power, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Taihao Technology, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [4][31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on diesel generator sets as demand is anticipated to grow rapidly with the acceleration of intelligent computing centers [4][32] - Recommended stocks include KOTAI Power, Weichai Heavy Machinery, Taihao Technology, and Yuchai International, among others, which are expected to benefit from the upward market trends [4][32]