非银金融资产管理产业链跟踪十一：全球被动化发展进程行至何处？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the ETF market in various regions, driven by factors such as low interest rates, the convergence of active fund excess returns, and the rise of independent advisory services [3][12][23] Summary by Sections United States - The U.S. ETF market has grown at an annualized rate of 35.1% from 1996 to 2023, reaching a total size of $8.09 trillion, with equity ETFs consistently maintaining over 70% of the total market share [3][13] - The shift towards passive investment products is driven by the difficulty of active funds in outperforming benchmarks, with approximately 60% of active equity funds failing to beat the S&P 1500 index from 2001 to 2023 [18][19] - Independent advisors now manage about 80% of fund portfolios, increasingly favoring low-cost ETFs as core assets for client portfolios, with their allocation to ETFs rising from 14% in 2012 to 45% in 2022 [20] Japan - Japan's ETF market has seen a significant expansion since 2010, with a total size of ¥89.37 trillion by 2024, growing at an annualized rate of 28.7% [23][25] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy, particularly its purchase of ETFs, has been a key driver of this growth, with the central bank holding over 40% of the total ETF market by 2024 [30][33] - Japanese equity ETFs dominate the market, accounting for over 90% of the total ETF size, reflecting a preference for stable, low-volatility investments [35] Taiwan - Taiwan's ETF market has grown at an annualized rate of 52.5% since 2017, reaching NT$6.38 trillion, with high-dividend and overseas bond ETFs becoming mainstream products due to a low-interest environment [3][12] - The semiconductor industry plays a crucial role in the Taiwanese market, contributing to stock price increases and higher dividend payouts [14] South Korea - South Korea's ETF market has experienced rapid growth since 2020, driven by increased participation from individual investors and a shift towards fixed-income ETFs amid rising interest rates [3][12] - The market reflects a polarized risk appetite among investors, with both low-risk and high-volatility products gaining traction [18] China - China's ETF market has entered a golden development period since 2019, with a total size of ¥3.73 trillion by 2024, growing at an annualized rate of 39.4% [3][12] - The market has seen alternating growth between narrow-based and broad-based ETFs, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs as long-term funds increase their holdings [19][28]