解码海外投行估值提升（一）：政策放松放大贝塔

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report focuses on the valuation enhancement of overseas investment banks driven by regulatory easing and economic recovery, highlighting the significant increase in price-to-book (PB) ratios for major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs from 2020 to 2024 [6][31] - The report indicates that the valuation premium for investment banks typically occurs during the initiation phase of regulatory easing cycles, which is accompanied by economic recovery and industry prosperity, driving profit expansion and valuation uplift [6][31] Group 2 - The report outlines that the valuation enhancement of overseas investment banks is catalyzed by regulatory easing, with significant liquidity release and optimization of capital efficiency leading to increased profitability in investment banking operations [6][31] - It anticipates further regulatory relaxation in the Trump 2.0 era, which could benefit various sectors including banking, asset management, cryptocurrency, and the M&A market, enhancing transaction volumes and market activity [6][31] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading brokerage firms that are likely to benefit from M&A catalysts and favorable policies, such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [6][31] Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of the PB-ROE valuation framework among representative investment banks from China, the US, Germany, and Japan, indicating that US and Chinese banks exhibit higher valuation premiums due to flexible regulations and expansive markets [13][15] - It highlights the historical context of US financial regulatory cycles and their impact on investment bank performance, noting that periods of regulatory easing have consistently correlated with increased excess returns for investment banks [6][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic conditions and financial regulatory policies in shaping the profitability and valuation of investment banks, with a focus on the positive relationship between ROE growth and valuation expansion [6][31]