中泰研究丨晨会聚焦策略徐驰：民营科技突破与特朗普2.0下资本市场或如何演绎？-2025-03-19

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various investment opportunities and risks associated with different sectors. Core Insights - The report highlights three major industry trends for the year: breakthroughs in private technology, defensive assets under stable policies, and safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical tensions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Private Technology Breakthroughs - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in China's technology sector, particularly in internet leaders, computing power, and robotics. The low-cost AI wave brought by DeepSeek is expected to significantly reduce AI deployment costs, benefiting downstream industries such as internet, new energy vehicles, and robotics. However, the overall diffusion of these technologies is limited, and investors should avoid excessively high valuations in small-cap tech stocks [6][7]. 2. Defensive Assets - Under stable macroeconomic policies, defensive assets such as bonds and dividend-paying stocks (e.g., utilities) are highlighted. The report anticipates that the overall profitability of A-shares will face significant growth pressure in 2025 due to new capacity pressures in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, compounded by global trade risks. Dividend-paying assets are seen as stable with low valuations, providing strong safety margins [7][8]. 3. Safe-Haven Assets - The report discusses the potential rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, non-ferrous metals, and military-related industries due to increased geopolitical tensions and the "America First" policy under Trump 2.0. The weakening of the dollar and rising long-term inflation may enhance the appeal of gold as an anti-inflation asset. Additionally, the demand for construction machinery and equipment is expected to remain strong as countries expand their manufacturing capabilities [8].