Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a dual leader in "sulfur recovery" and "n-propanol," with significant growth potential in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector. The integration of technology, engineering, and industrial operations enhances its attractiveness due to high dividends and strong shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Qilu Petrochemical Victory Refining Design Institute, has evolved into a comprehensive chemical group, focusing on technology, engineering, and industrial operations. It has diversified into chemical products, catalysts, and engineering services, with revenue contributions from chemical (69%), engineering (23%), and catalysts (9%) in 2023 [1][17]. Engineering Segment - The company is a leader in sulfur recovery, having completed 237 sets of designs and total contracts with a capacity of 12.55 million tons/year by mid-2024. It has a robust order backlog of 1.57 billion yuan, supporting growth in the next 1-2 years. The Xinjiang coal chemical investment is expected to peak in project bidding, providing further opportunities [1][2][44]. Industrial Segment - The company is the largest domestic producer of n-propanol and has a significant presence in the recovery of butyl and octanol residues. The production capacity for aldehydes, alcohols, acids, and esters is 170,000 tons/year, with a strong demand forecast for n-propanol driven by downstream product expansions. The cellulose segment is also expected to contribute to growth through ongoing technical upgrades [2][3][17]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 2.66 billion yuan in 2023, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, reflecting a 3% increase. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 268 million, 402 million, and 558 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 13, and 9 [4][24][41]. The dividend payout ratio has been high, with 69% in 2023 and an expected 77% in mid-2024, indicating strong shareholder return intentions [41]. Profitability and Growth Forecast - The company anticipates a significant improvement in performance due to the acceleration of project confirmations and rising n-propanol prices. The expected net profit growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are -5%, +50%, and +39%, respectively [2][24]. The overall gross margin has remained stable, with a projected gross margin of 21.3% in 2025 [24][26].
三维化学(002469):“硫磺回收”与“正丙醇”双龙头,新疆煤化工打开成长空间