丽江股份（002033）：Q4淡季双位数增长，维持高派息

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Lijiang Co., indicating a forecasted relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable operations in 2024, with Q4 revenue performance showing double growth. The dividend proposal remains consistent with the previous year, yielding a dividend rate of 3.5% based on the closing price on March 18 [3][5]. - The company’s 2024 revenue is projected at 808 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 211 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year due to fluctuations in gross margin and expense ratios [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 799 million yuan - 2024A: 808 million yuan - 2025E: 866 million yuan - 2026E: 936 million yuan - 2027E: 967 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 152% (2023A), 1% (2024A), 7% (2025E), 8% (2026E), 3% (2027E) [2][5]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 227 million yuan - 2024A: 211 million yuan - 2025E: 250 million yuan - 2026E: 283 million yuan - 2027E: 303 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 6072% (2023A), -7% (2024A), 18% (2025E), 13% (2026E), 7% (2027E) [2][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.41 yuan - 2024A: 0.38 yuan - 2025E: 0.45 yuan - 2026E: 0.52 yuan - 2027E: 0.55 yuan [2][5]. - Valuation Ratios: - P/E: 24.0 (2023A), 25.9 (2024A), 21.9 (2025E), 19.3 (2026E), 18.0 (2027E) - P/B: 2.2 (2023A), 2.2 (2024A), 2.0 (2025E), 1.9 (2026E), 1.8 (2027E) [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s core business segments, including cableway and performance services, continue to show growth. In 2024, the total number of visitors to the three cableways reached 6.6684 million, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The revenue from cableway services was 410 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, while performance revenue was 140 million yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase [5][6]. - The hotel business remains under pressure, with a revenue of 167 million yuan in 2024, down 11.1% year-on-year. The company continues to expand its hotel offerings, including the opening of a luxury hotel in July 2024 [5][6].