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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [28]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight rebound in U.S. retail sales growth in February, but it remains significantly below market expectations, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.2%, lower than the anticipated 0.6%. January's growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2% [4][5]. - Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down, particularly in durable goods, sports and entertainment products, and clothing. The food service sector experienced its largest decline in 2023, with a drop of 1.5% in February [4][5]. - The report indicates that uncertainty stemming from recent policies, including tariffs and government spending cuts, is likely to suppress overall demand, impacting both corporate investment and household durable goods consumption [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting while reiterating its commitment to controlling inflation, but it will also be cautious of economic downturn risks [4][5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - February retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.2%, with the largest category, automotive and parts sales, declining by 0.4% after a significant drop of 3.7% in January [4][5]. - Online shopping rebounded from a decline of 2.4% in January to a growth of 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from previous years [4][5]. - The report notes a rising household savings rate, indicating a potential impact on consumer confidence due to the uncertainty created by recent policies [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that inflation uncertainty and economic downturn risks are increasing, with the Michigan long-term inflation expectations rising to 3.9%, the highest level since 1993 [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to pause interest rate cuts in May, June, and July, with potential cuts of 1-2 times in September or December [4][5].