Xinda Securities·2025-03-18 12:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with a slight year-on-year decline in domestic capacity in January and February. The recent decline in ticket prices has narrowed, and if travel demand continues to grow, ticket prices may turn positive year-on-year in the second and third quarters [3][10] - The supply growth rate for capacity in 2025 is expected to slow down, and with ticket prices at low levels following significant declines in 2024, there is potential for airline performance to rebound with economic recovery and increased travel demand. Factors such as declining oil prices and stable exchange rates also suggest upward potential for airline profits [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - The monthly passenger load factor remains high, with January 2025 data showing a year-on-year increase in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) of 13.7% and 18.1%, respectively. The load factor reached 82.8%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] - Domestic line turnover increased by 10% year-on-year in January 2025, while international and regional lines recovered to 107.5% of 2019 levels [18] Ticket Pricing - After the Spring Festival, the year-on-year difference in ticket prices has gradually narrowed. As of early March 2025, the average ticket price was 560 yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The weekly average ticket prices showed a decreasing trend in year-on-year declines, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing [20][21] Oil and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 was 5,952 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year. Brent crude oil prices were stable, with a settlement price of $71.07 per barrel as of March 17, 2025, a decrease of 4.8% from the end of 2024. The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1733 as of March 18, 2025, a slight decrease of 0.21% from the end of 2024 [5][32] Airline Operations - In January and February 2025, domestic airline capacity saw a slight year-on-year decline, while the passenger load factor remained high. Most airlines reported international capacity and turnover exceeding 2019 levels, although there were still discrepancies in load factors [38][40] - In February, China Eastern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 5 aircraft, while other airlines also saw increases. Cumulatively, China Eastern, China Southern, and Air China saw net increases of 8, 6, and 4 aircraft, respectively [52]