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建筑材料行业周报:实物量延续回升,地产量价趋稳信号维持,关注旧改、提振消费拉动建材需求-2025-03-18
东方财富证券·2025-03-18 11:15

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the construction materials industry [5]. Core Insights - The physical volume continues to recover, with signs of stabilization in real estate prices and volumes, indicating potential demand growth for construction materials driven by urban renewal and consumption stimulation initiatives [9][14][22]. - The report highlights the positive impact of increased efforts in urban renewal projects, which are expected to drive significant investment in construction materials, particularly waterproof materials, building coatings, and pipes [22][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Consumption Stimulation Action Plan" issued by the government, which aims to boost demand for construction materials through various infrastructure projects [28][29]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The construction materials sector rose approximately 1.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2 percentage points [9]. - Cement, glass, and renovation materials saw increases of 1.1%, 0.2%, and 1.9% respectively, while the fiberglass sector declined by 0.9% [9][14]. Physical Volume Recovery - National cement dispatch rates reached 43%, with regional rates in East China and South China at 53% and 55% respectively, showing a continued recovery [14]. - The second round of price increases for cement in East China was successfully implemented, with an increase of 30 yuan per ton [14]. Real Estate Price and Volume Stabilization - In the first ten weeks of 2025, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 10% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the real estate market [18]. - The report notes significant year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transaction areas in cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou, with increases of 61% and 37% respectively [18][19]. Urban Renewal Initiatives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced plans to include all old residential areas built before 2000 in urban renewal projects, potentially leading to over one trillion yuan in direct investment [22][28]. - The report identifies specific construction materials that will benefit from urban renewal, including waterproof materials and building coatings [22][27]. Focus on Consumption Stimulation - The "Consumption Stimulation Action Plan" emphasizes the need for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which will further enhance demand for construction materials [28][29]. Sector-Specific Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cement companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, as well as consumer building materials companies such as Zhite New Materials and Dongfang Yuhong, for their long-term growth potential [22][28]. - It also highlights opportunities in high-demand new materials and export chains, recommending companies like Xingqiu Graphite and Puxin Co., Ltd. [22][35]. High-Performance Data - The report indicates that the cement sector is experiencing a seasonal recovery, with dispatch rates and prices showing positive trends [39]. - Glass demand is recovering, but inventory levels remain high, indicating a need for careful management [47]. Cost Trends - The report tracks raw material prices, noting a general decline in costs for most materials, which could positively impact profit margins for construction material companies [56].