2025年1-2月经济数据点评：制造立国，见龙在田

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, with a strong investment rating due to robust industrial production and manufacturing investment growth [4][9]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is counteracting the decline in real estate investment. Manufacturing investment grew by 9.0% in January-February, while real estate investment declined by 9.8% [4][8]. - The report highlights a structural shift in the economy, with five key macroeconomic logic changes indicating a potential turning point in pessimistic narratives [9][10]. - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy is emphasized as a key driver for economic resilience, with ongoing industrial production and manufacturing investment effectively offsetting negative impacts from real estate and consumption [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic Performance in January-February - The national economy started smoothly in January-February, with major economic indicators showing stability and improvement. Industrial production remains strong, investment shows resilience, and consumption is marginally improving [8][9]. - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while social retail sales grew by 4.0% [8][9]. 2. Industrial Production - Industrial added value for January-February grew by 5.9%, with significant contributions from the equipment manufacturing sector, which saw a 12% increase in added value [15][19]. - The report notes that the manufacturing sector continues to be a major driver of economic growth, supported by policy initiatives aimed at industrial upgrading [15][17]. 3. Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.1% in January-February, with manufacturing investment at 9.0% and infrastructure investment at 5.6% [23][24]. - The report indicates that manufacturing investment remains strong, supported by policies promoting equipment updates and industrial upgrades [24][27]. 4. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.8% in January-February, but the rate of decline is narrowing, suggesting potential stabilization in the sector [34][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions, indicating a possible turnaround in the real estate market [35][39]. 5. Consumer Spending - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% in January-February, with notable declines in certain categories due to pre-holiday shopping and the impact of trade-in policies [43][44]. - The report suggests that while there is a marginal recovery in consumer spending, underlying trends indicate a downward adjustment in the consumption growth rate [43][46]. 6. Employment Situation - The employment situation remains generally stable, with a seasonal increase in the unemployment rate observed [49].