美国大消费动态全景追踪：预期3月美国消费仍承压，美国航空公司均下调下一季业绩指引和夏天航空运力

Investment Rating - The report rates Nike as "Outperform" with a target price of $100.20 and Lululemon as "Neutral" with a target price of$370.20 [1]. Core Insights - U.S. consumption is expected to remain under pressure in March following continued weakness in February, with a notable decline in consumer confidence and nonfarm payrolls [56]. - February retail sales data showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, rebounding from a revised decline of 1.2% in January, but still below the expected 0.6% [56]. - The U.S. CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, better than market expectations, marking the first decline after four consecutive months of increases [56]. - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.1% in February, weaker than market expectations, with a significant increase in youth unemployment [56]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - February retail and food service sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts stores) increased by 0.5% month-over-month, improving from January's decline of 0.8% [56]. - Durable goods, including motor vehicle and parts dealers, saw a decline of 0.4%, while apparel and sporting goods also faced downward pressure [56]. Consumer Confidence - The preliminary University of Michigan U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index for March was 57.9, significantly below expectations and marking a decline for the third consecutive month [56][14]. - All demographic groups reported a deterioration in expectations regarding personal finances, the labor market, inflation, and the business environment [14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to a near three-month low of 4.24%, reflecting concerns over economic growth and inflation expectations [20][56]. - Global gold prices reached a record high of $2,978.05 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [24][56]. Airline Industry Outlook - Major U.S. airlines, including American and Delta, have lowered their earnings guidance for the next quarter due to weak demand, particularly in domestic routes and non-premium cabins [58]. - The airline industry has cut June capacity by approximately 65 basis points in response to changing demand conditions [58].