煤炭行业月报：进口增速放缓，需求有望改善-2025-03-18

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal supply has increased, with domestic raw coal production in February reaching 765 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, and coal imports totaling 76.12 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year [5][9] - Demand for coal, particularly for electricity generation, has decreased, with total electricity generation in January-February falling by 1.3% year-on-year, and thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - The report anticipates a potential improvement in demand due to macroeconomic expectations, supported by government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and fiscal stimulus measures [5][11] Supply Side Summary - In the first two months, domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, while coal imports rose by 2.1% [9][10] - Total coal supply for January-February was 840 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.91% [5][9] Demand Side Summary - National electricity generation decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, with thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - Clean energy sources such as hydropower, solar, and wind have shown growth, with solar power generation increasing by 27.4% year-on-year [12][15] Inventory and Price Summary - National coal inventory increased by 24.62% year-on-year, with key power plants showing a 12.80% rise in coal inventory [19][21] - Coal prices have seen significant declines, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal down by 20.83% year-on-year [24][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas: 1. Dual-focus on coking coal elasticity, recommending companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [5] 2. High-quality dividend stocks, recommending Shaanxi Coal and China Coal Energy [5] 3. Long-term growth potential, recommending companies such as Guanghui Energy and New Hope Liuhe [5]