美股策略：市场结构性转变，衰退交易主导市场

Group 1 - The report highlights a structural shift in the US stock market, with recession trading dominating the market sentiment [1] - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 2.5% over the past week, despite a technical rebound on Friday, indicating a lack of sustainable optimism among investors [11] - Various sectors showed weakness, particularly growth sectors like communication services, semiconductors, technology, and consumer discretionary, which fell between 2-4% [11] Group 2 - US macroeconomic data reveals inflation indicators that, while better than expected, conceal underlying risks, with consumer confidence declining significantly [12][25] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stability, with core PPI declining by 0.1%, indicating easing upstream inflation pressures [17] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, suggesting a potential slowdown in inflation [17] Group 3 - The report notes that the market is adjusting its earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500, with Q1 2025 earnings growth forecast reduced from 11.6% to 7.3% [41] - Revenue growth expectations for 2025 have only slightly adjusted from 5.8% to 5.4%, indicating stable demand expectations despite trade war impacts [41] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming earnings reports in April, particularly in light of the new administration's policies [41] Group 4 - The report discusses the increasing impact of the trade war on market sentiment, with significant declines in the S&P 500 during previous trade-related events [42][43] - Recent market reactions to trade war developments have been more pronounced, reflecting heightened investor anxiety about economic resilience [45] - The report suggests that the current market environment is characterized by extreme fear, as indicated by investor sentiment indices [51]