每日投资策略-2025-03-18

Macro Overview - The Chinese economy continues its moderate recovery, with most economic indicators in the first two months exceeding market expectations. Retail sales growth has slightly increased due to the expansion of the old-for-new subsidy program. Industrial output growth has slowed slightly, but fixed asset investment growth has accelerated significantly, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [4][5] - The Chinese government has been signaling policies to stabilize the stock and real estate markets and boost consumption, which may support ongoing economic recovery this year. However, as the effects of policy stimulus gradually weaken and trade war impacts become more apparent, the economy may face downward pressure again in the fourth quarter. The GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 5.1% in the first three quarters to 4.5% in the fourth quarter, with an annual growth forecast of 4.9% [4] Industry Insights Engineering Machinery Industry - The proposed €500 billion infrastructure investment plan by Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to be submitted to parliament for approval. The likelihood of passing has increased due to support from the Green Party. Companies like Weichai Power, which is a major shareholder of the European industrial vehicle manufacturer KION Group, are positioned to benefit from this plan. Additionally, Zhejiang Dingli and Sany Heavy Industry, which derive about 20% of their revenue from Europe, are also potential beneficiaries [4] Internet Industry - The retail sales data for the first two months of 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, an improvement from 3.7% in December 2024, driven by the nationwide old-for-new policy. Online retail sales of physical goods have also rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The market's expectations for increased stimulus policies are rising, and the next round of valuation reassessment in the industry may depend on the recovery of consumer sentiment. The report maintains a "buy" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com [5] Company Analysis Tmall (6110 HK) - The company is upgraded to "buy" with a target price of HKD 4.51, as the performance in the second half of the 2025 fiscal year is expected to improve. The forecast for the fourth quarter and the entire year is better than expected, with retail sales projected to decline by only a low single digit percentage. Factors contributing to this improvement include a better macro environment, strong performance from Adidas and outdoor brands, and good e-commerce sales [6][7] - For the 2026 fiscal year, the outlook is optimistic, with expected sales growth of 4% and net profit growth of 18%. The positive macro environment, reduced industry risks, and company-specific catalysts such as new product launches and improved brand support are key drivers [6][7] Hillstone Technology (1478 HK) - The target price is raised to HKD 9.25 based on an optimistic 2025 guidance due to upgrades in OIS/periscope and demand from automotive/IoT sectors. The company is expected to see a 241% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, benefiting from market share growth and product upgrades. The management maintains a positive outlook for high-end lens modules and automotive/IoT lens module orders [7] China Tower (788 HK) - The company reported a 4.0% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 97.8 billion for the 2024 fiscal year, in line with expectations. Net profit increased by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above expectations. The traditional tower business remains stable, while the DAS and dual-wing businesses continue to grow at double-digit rates. The target price is raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting a favorable valuation [8]