金属行业周报：国内宏观经济预期向好，海外关税政策扰动市场

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] - Specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2] Core Views - The steel industry is entering a consumption peak season with increased downstream demand, indicating a potential improvement in the industry's fundamentals [1][16] - Copper supply remains tight, providing support for copper prices; demand may improve as the consumption season progresses [1][35] - The aluminum market is supported by domestic economic expectations and solar energy installation demand, but is affected by overseas tariffs and trade policies [1][42] - Gold prices are influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policies, which continue to create market disturbances [1][47] - Lithium supply is expected to increase as production resumes, but the oversupply situation is likely to persist, keeping prices weak in the short term [1][48] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with inventory continuing to decline and prices recovering [16] - As of March 14, 2025, the total steel inventory was 18.29 million tons, down 1.53% from the previous week and down 25.72% year-on-year [24] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates have improved compared to the previous week [32] Copper Industry - Copper prices are supported by tight supply, with LME copper spot prices at $9,800 per ton as of March 14, 2025, reflecting a 0.98% increase from the previous week [39] - The copper smelting fee was reported at -$15.90 per ton, indicating a challenging environment for smelters [38] Aluminum Industry - As of March 14, 2025, LME aluminum prices were $2,700 per ton, up 0.74% from the previous week, while domestic prices were at 20,900 yuan per ton, up 0.29% [43] - The market is currently cautious, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach [40] Gold Industry - Gold prices have risen due to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, with COMEX gold closing at $2,993.60 per ounce on March 14, 2025, a 2.60% increase [47] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policies continue to support gold prices [47] Lithium and New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices were reported at 75,500 yuan per ton, down 0.26% from the previous week, indicating a weak price trend despite expected demand growth [49] - The supply situation remains challenging, with policies aimed at stimulating demand through subsidies [48] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, increased by 1.02% to 445,000 yuan per ton as of March 14, 2025 [55] - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 0.71% to 140,000 yuan per ton [59]