香港中华煤气：核心利润稳步回升，绿色能源成长可期-20250320

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited [1] Core Views - The company's core profit is steadily recovering, and growth in green energy is expected [1] - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 55.473 billion for 2024, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the attributable net profit was HKD 5.712 billion, down 5.9% [5] - The core profit for the year was HKD 59.55 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, aligning with expectations [5] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.23 per share, resulting in a total dividend of HKD 0.35 per share for the year, yielding a dividend rate of 5.31% based on the closing price on March 19 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million HKD) is projected as follows: 2023: 56,971, 2024: 55,473, 2025E: 55,525, 2026E: 57,637, 2027E: 59,285 [2] - Attributable net profit (in million HKD) is forecasted as: 2023: 6,070, 2024: 5,712, 2025E: 6,131, 2026E: 6,543, 2027E: 6,911 [2] - The net asset return rate is expected to improve from 8.55% in 2023 to 9.61% in 2027 [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 20.3 in 2023 to 17.8 in 2027 [2] Business Performance - The Hong Kong gas sales volume for 2024 is expected to be 27,159 TJ, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [5] - The company has increased its maintenance fees and basic pricing, indicating a strong pricing power in the Hong Kong market [5] - The mainland gas sales volume is projected to reach 36.36 billion m³ in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5] - The gross margin for city gas sales is expected to improve, with a target of 0.54 HKD/m³ for 2025 [5] Renewable Energy Growth - The company's photovoltaic power generation is expected to increase by 95% to 1.83 billion kWh in 2024, with net profits from renewable energy activities reaching HKD 4.79 billion [5] - The company is expanding its green methanol production capacity by 50% to 150,000 tons in Inner Mongolia [5] Conclusion - The report concludes that the company's core profit is steadily increasing, and the overall business performance is stable, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]