行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 26 日 第二产业用电回暖 冷冬预期有望提 升销气增速 - ⚫ 电力：25Q3 第二产业是拉动全社会用电量的主要动力。根据国家能源局数据，9 月单月全社会用 电量 8886 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.5%。其中第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量分别同比增 长 7.3%、5.7%、6.3%、-2.6%。累计数据来看，1-9 月，全社会用电量累计 77675 亿千瓦时， 同比增长 4.6%。1-9 月，第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent adjustments in the value-added tax (VAT) policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability for operators in these sectors [9][10]. - It notes the competitive pricing results for electricity in Xinjiang and Gansu, with Xinjiang's prices nearing the upper limit of the bidding range, suggesting a favorable environment for renewable energy operators [8]. - The report discusses the decline in global LNG prices, with China's comprehensive LNG import price reaching a four-year low, which could benefit domestic gas companies [12][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's mechanism electricity bidding results show a scale of 36 billion kWh for solar and 185 billion kWh for wind, with prices at 0.235 CNY/kWh and 0.252 CNY/kWh respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][8]. - The VAT policy changes will eliminate the 50% VAT refund for onshore wind from November 1, 2025, while maintaining it for offshore wind until the end of 2027 [9][10]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, China Nuclear Power, and Longyuan Power due to their stable growth prospects [11]. 2. Gas Sector - Global gas prices have shown slight declines, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, reflecting a 2.90% weekly drop [12][15]. - China's LNG import price has dropped to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021, driven by lower oil prices affecting long-term contracts [27][29]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and economic recovery may enhance profitability [29]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt-for-equity swaps and the increasing stability of returns for green energy operators, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Hongcheng Environment [11]. - It highlights the ongoing rise in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with several rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance in the coming years [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, highlighting potential investment opportunities in renewable energy and gas companies [3][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent adjustments in value-added tax policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability in the short to medium term [10][11]. - It notes the significant drop in LNG import prices, reaching a four-year low, which could benefit gas companies and consumers [13][29]. - The report suggests that the competitive bidding results for electricity prices in Xinjiang and Gansu indicate varying strategies among renewable energy operators, which could lead to improved profit margins [9][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's competitive bidding results show a mechanism electricity price of 0.252 CNY/kWh for wind power, close to the upper limit, while Gansu's price is 0.1954 CNY/kWh, near the lower limit [5][9]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for onshore wind power, effective November 1, 2025, will eliminate the 50% refund policy, while offshore wind will retain it until the end of 2027 [10][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, Sichuan Investment Energy, and China Nuclear Power due to their stable growth prospects [12]. 2. Gas Sector - The report highlights a slight decline in global gas prices, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, down 2.90% week-on-week, and LNG import prices in China dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021 [13][29]. - It suggests that the cost reduction in upstream resources and the recovery of the macro economy will benefit Hong Kong gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [31]. - The report anticipates that the LNG prices may stabilize as demand increases with the onset of colder weather [29][31]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, power, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [35]. - The report notes that the power equipment sector lagged behind the index, indicating potential investment opportunities in other sectors [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming competitive bidding for renewable energy projects in Anhui, with a bidding range set between 0.2 CNY/kWh and 0.3844 CNY/kWh [41][42]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power, which reported varying results in their electricity generation [43][44].

Core Points - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference will be held from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, co-hosted by the World Green Design Organization and Sina Group, with support from the Shanghai Huangpu District Government [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Hong Kong and China Gas Group's ESG Director Bien Wong highlighted the company's long-standing commitment to renewable energy, having ceased coal production since 1967 [3][5] - The company is involved in various renewable energy projects, including hydrogen energy and sustainable aviation fuel, and operates a green methanol facility for the shipping industry in Inner Mongolia [5][6] - The company serves over 40 million customers, translating to a potential audience of over 100 million when considering an average of three individuals per customer [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The energy sector must prioritize understanding emission reduction demands before producing renewable energy to avoid oversupply issues [6] - The historical context of energy production is crucial for determining the applicability of renewable energy solutions within existing industry structures [6] - ESG considerations are increasingly important for investors in the energy sector, as the development of low-carbon energy is closely linked to ESG initiatives [7]

Core Insights - Hong Kong and Fuan Energy Group have established a joint venture, VENEX Company Limited, to develop a comprehensive green methanol supply and distribution network in response to national carbon neutrality goals and the green transformation of the port and shipping industry [1][6] Group 1: Partnership and Collaboration - VENEX has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Veolia China and Shanghai Port Group Energy to leverage their expertise in green methanol production, local decarbonization solutions, and port energy infrastructure [6][7] - The collaboration aims to create an end-to-end green fuel supply ecosystem, providing sustainable fuel solutions for the port and shipping sectors, thereby reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuels [6][7] Group 2: Industry Impact and Goals - The partnership is expected to facilitate the transition of the port and shipping industry towards low-carbon development, contributing to the establishment of a green low-carbon industrial ecosystem in the transportation sector [6][7] - The initiative aligns with the broader goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the port and shipping industry, with a focus on integrating global environmental resources and local port infrastructure advantages [7]

Core Viewpoint - The high-profile divorce case involving Digital China (000034.SZ) has attracted significant attention in the A-share market, particularly due to the potential financial implications for the company and its controlling shareholder, Guo Wei [1] Group 1: Divorce Proceedings - The Beijing Haidian District People's Court ruled on September 30 to grant a divorce between Guo Wei and his wife Guo Zhengli, with property division still pending [1] - Guo Wei's approximately 77.39 million shares of Digital China have been judicially frozen since January, valued at around 3.4 billion yuan based on the October 10 closing price of 43.86 yuan per share [1] - Guo Zhengli is preparing to appeal the court's decision, having initially filed for divorce in Hong Kong in July 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Legal Implications - The simultaneous handling of the divorce case in both Beijing and Hong Kong constitutes parallel litigation, which may lead to conflicting rulings on child custody and property division due to differing legal frameworks [2] - Guo Wei remains the chairman of Digital China, Digital Information (000555.SZ), and Digital Holdings (00861.HK), holding approximately 155 million shares of Digital China (21.49% ownership) and 360 million shares of Digital Holdings (21.44% ownership) [2] Group 3: Company Dynamics - The rift between Guo Wei and Guo Zhengli has been evident, with Guo Zhengli being dismissed from her position at Digital Holdings shortly after filing for divorce, indicating potential internal conflicts [3] - The restructuring of the core team at Digital Holdings following Guo Zhengli's dismissal may have contributed to the ongoing tensions between the couple [3]

Core Viewpoint - The high-profile divorce case of Guo Wei, the controlling shareholder of Digital China (000034.SZ), has attracted significant attention in the A-share market, particularly due to the potential financial implications and stock price movements associated with the case [2]. Group 1: Divorce Case Details - The Beijing Haidian District People's Court ruled on September 30 that Guo Wei and his wife, Guo Zhengli, are to be divorced, with property division to be determined later [2]. - Guo Wei's approximately 77.39 million shares of Digital China have been judicially frozen since January, valued at around 3.4 billion yuan based on the October 10 closing price of 43.86 yuan per share [2]. - The stock price of Digital China has nearly doubled from around 22 yuan to 43.86 yuan since August of the previous year, reaching a historical high of 60.11 yuan in April this year [2]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The divorce case is being processed in both Beijing and Hong Kong, which may lead to conflicting rulings due to differences in legal systems and property distribution laws between the two regions [3]. - Guo Zhengli initiated divorce proceedings in Hong Kong in July 2024, while Guo Wei filed in Beijing, possibly due to unfamiliarity with Hong Kong's legal processes [2][3]. Group 3: Impact on Company Control - Guo Wei remains the chairman of Digital China and other affiliated companies, holding approximately 155 million shares of Digital China (21.49% ownership) and 360 million shares of Digital Holdings (21.44% ownership) [3]. - The divorce could significantly impact the control of Digital China and its affiliated companies, with potential risks of changes in the controlling shareholder if Guo Wei's frozen shares are disposed of [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the hydropower sector, particularly large hydropower projects, due to improved fundamentals and favorable weather conditions [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the autumn floods have positively impacted hydropower generation, with significant increases in water inflow expected in the coming days [2][6]. - The announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the regulation of price competition is expected to alleviate irrational competition in the electricity market [2][8]. - Global natural gas prices are experiencing fluctuations, with U.S. prices remaining low while European prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions and increased heating demand [12][21]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The report notes that hydropower generation in the Yangtze River basin has reached historical highs due to concentrated rainfall, with a total generation of approximately 235.13 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The announcement on regulating price competition aims to create a fair market environment, which is expected to reduce irrational pricing behaviors in the electricity sector [7][8]. - Recommendations include focusing on large hydropower companies such as Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power, as well as green energy firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [11]. Natural Gas Sector - As of October 10, 2025, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices were $2.90/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 9.03%, while European gas prices, such as the TTF, saw an increase of 5.26% to €32.63/MWh [12][14]. - The report indicates that the natural gas consumption in August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with total consumption reaching 364.1 billion m³ [34]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on integrated natural gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as well as gas trading firms [36]. Environmental Sector - The report suggests that companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as Zhongshan Public Utilities and Everbright Environment, should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [11]. - The ongoing development of carbon trading markets and environmental regulations is expected to enhance the performance of companies in the environmental sector [46].

Group 1 - The actual controller of Digital China, Guo Wei, has been ruled to divorce by the Haidian District Court, with further hearings on property division pending [1] - Guo Wei's shares in Digital China, amounting to 7,738,900 shares, have been frozen by the court, representing 50% of his total holdings, with a current market value of approximately 3.394 billion yuan [1] - Guo Wei has a significant background in the tech industry, having previously worked at Lenovo Group and later leading Digital China after its establishment [1] Group 2 - Guo Wei currently holds various positions, including independent non-executive director of China Southern Airlines, chairman and CEO of Digital China, and chairman of Digital China Information [2] - Guo Wei's wealth has fluctuated over the years, with a notable presence on the Hurun Rich List, peaking at 5.5 billion yuan in 2016 and currently valued at 5 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - As of now, Guo Wei directly holds 155 million shares of Digital China, valued at approximately 6.789 billion yuan, alongside other holdings in listed companies [3] Group 3 - The lawsuit's outcome remains uncertain, and the company asserts that it operates independently from its controlling shareholder, with no significant impact on its profits or operations expected from the litigation [3]

Group 1 - The actual controller of Digital China, Guo Wei, has been granted a divorce judgment by the Haidian District Court, with further hearings on property division pending [1] - Guo Wei's shares in Digital China, amounting to 7,738,900 shares, were frozen by the court, representing 50% of his total holdings, with a current market value of approximately 3.394 billion yuan [1] - Guo Wei has a significant background in the tech industry, having previously worked at Lenovo Group and later leading Digital China after its establishment [1] Group 2 - Guo Wei currently holds various positions, including independent non-executive director of China Southern Airlines, chairman and CEO of Digital China, and chairman of Digital China Information [2] - Guo Wei's wealth has fluctuated over the years, with a notable presence on the Hurun Rich List, peaking at 5.5 billion yuan in 2016 and currently valued at 5 billion yuan [2] - As of now, Guo Wei directly holds 155 million shares of Digital China, valued at approximately 6.789 billion yuan, alongside other holdings in listed companies [3] Group 3 - Guo Wei's salary from Digital China and Digital China Information for the 2024 fiscal year is reported to be 6.3478 million yuan and 5.9329 million yuan, respectively [3] - Guo Zhengli, Guo Wei's ex-wife, has a strong educational background and previously held executive positions at Intel and Microsoft before joining Digital China [3] - The lawsuit's outcome remains uncertain, but Digital China asserts that it operates independently from its controlling shareholder, indicating no significant impact on its profits or operations [3]