上 市 公 司 公用事业 2026 年 03 月 24 日 香港中华煤气 (00003) ——内地毛差稳步回升 再生能源及绿色燃料发展提速 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 丛次面: 2 FR 200 | | | --- | --- | | Acres of A 45 7 4 7111 | . | 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 收盘价（港币） | 7.08 | | --- | --- | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8307.82 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 7.76/6.32 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,321.12 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 18,659.87 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8811 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -18% 2% 22% 42% 03/24 04/24 05/24 06/24 07/24 08/24 09/24 10/24 11/24 12/24 01/24 02/24 HSCEI 香港中华煤气 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Hong Kong and China Gas Company, with a target price of HKD 7 [1] Core Insights - For the fiscal year 2025, the core operating profit is projected to be HKD 6 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 4%, which aligns with both UBS's and market expectations [1] - The growth is primarily driven by stable performance in the Hong Kong gas business and a decrease in financial expenses, although this is partially offset by a 2% decline in profits from mainland city gas due to weak new connections [1] - The profit from mainland city gas business benefited from an increase in gross profit per cubic meter from HKD 0.52 to HKD 0.54, but this was countered by a drop in new connections from 1.68 million to 1.45 million, with gas sales remaining relatively flat [1] - The losses in the green fuel segment narrowed to HKD 158 million [1] - UBS anticipates a neutral to slightly negative outlook from investors regarding the performance, maintaining a generally neutral stance on the industry, with expectations of slowing growth in urban gas sales and potential short-term pressure on unit profits due to upstream price fluctuations [1] - Positive sentiment is noted towards EcoCeres, as its capacity expansion is progressing faster than expected, which may accelerate order absorption and attract strategic investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong and mainland gas companies are expected to maintain stable profits and growth due to energy security advantages, effective cost-locking mechanisms, and the potential for increased demand from new residential units and green fuel initiatives [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Hong Kong and China Gas reported a revenue of HKD 54.3 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, while core profit increased by 4% to HKD 6.0 billion, aligning with forecasts [1] - The company maintained a full-year dividend of HKD 0.35, resulting in a current dividend yield of approximately 4.8% and a payout ratio of about 115% [1] - The expected net profit for 2026 is projected at HKD 60.9 billion, with slight adjustments to previous estimates for 2026-2027 [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2025, Hong Kong's gas sales volume remained stable at 27,181 TJ, with residential gas consumption increasing due to a decrease in average temperatures, offsetting slight declines in commercial and industrial gas usage [2] - The company added 20,000 new customers in 2025, with ongoing projects in the Northern Metropolis expected to provide over 500,000 residential units, contributing to future gas demand [2] - The mainland gas sales volume for 2025 is projected at 36.35 billion cubic meters, remaining flat year-on-year, with a slight increase in residential gas consumption due to renovations and new user connections [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Green Fuel Initiatives - The company has secured a stable gas supply structure, with 6.4 billion cubic meters accounted for in 2025, representing 18% of total sales volume [3] - The price of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) is expected to rise, with advanced biofuel operations projected to generate a profit of HKD 0.21 billion in 2025 [3] - The green methanol strategy aligns with policy cycles, with production expected to ramp up significantly by 2027, targeting the shipping industry's emission reduction goals [3] Group 4: Cash Flow and Valuation - The company anticipates exceeding expectations for free cash flow, supported by a transition to renewable energy and strategic financing initiatives [4] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 7.90, reflecting a premium over historical averages, with a projected price-to-book ratio of 2.5x for 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The energy industry is undergoing significant changes, with traditional gas markets facing challenges while opportunities in low-carbon fuels like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and green methanol are emerging. Hong Kong and China Gas Company (HKCG) is positioned to capitalize on these trends, showcasing a solid performance in 2025 with a 2% increase in after-tax operating profit to HKD 7.5 billion and a 4% rise in core business profit to HKD 6 billion [1]. Group 1: Green Fuel Opportunities - The company is focusing on "sea, land, and air" green fuels as key growth drivers, particularly in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where global demand is projected to reach 350 million tons by 2050 [2][3]. - HKCG has successfully trialed SAF production in Malaysia, indicating its capability to supply international airlines and aligning with government plans to develop a SAF industry in the Greater Bay Area [3]. - In the green methanol sector, the global market is expected to grow from USD 8.66 billion in 2026 to USD 45.25 billion by 2034, with HKCG establishing joint ventures and production facilities to capture this growth [4]. Group 2: Hydrogen Energy Development - Hydrogen energy is emerging as a new market for HKCG, with applications in Hong Kong expected to transition from demonstration to implementation by 2025 [5][6]. - The company is collaborating with the government to produce green hydrogen from biogas, aiming for a daily output of 1 ton, and is actively developing hydrogen applications across various sectors [6]. Group 3: Utility Business as a Stabilizing Force - The traditional utility business remains a critical stabilizing factor for HKCG, providing a solid foundation amid the evolving energy landscape [7][8]. - In Hong Kong, the company is benefiting from economic recovery and urban expansion, with an expected increase in energy demand due to population growth in the Northern Metropolis [8]. - Despite challenges in mainland China, HKCG has demonstrated resilience through strategic partnerships and improved cost control, leading to a rise in gas pricing margins [8][9]. Group 4: Business Model Innovation - HKCG is transforming its business model from a traditional gas supplier to a comprehensive service provider, integrating various services and enhancing customer engagement [11][12]. - The company is also adopting a light-asset strategy in renewable energy, focusing on asset management and cash flow optimization to navigate industry fluctuations [13]. Group 5: Conclusion - HKCG is effectively navigating industry changes by leveraging its strengths in traditional utility services while exploring new opportunities in green fuels and innovative business models, positioning itself for future growth [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) is expected to see a slight decline of 0.4% in shareholder profit for the fiscal year 2025, amounting to HKD 56.88 billion, with dividends per share remaining unchanged at HKD 0.35 [1] Financial Performance - The net profit forecast for Hong Kong and China Gas has been revised down by 5% to 7% for the next two years due to slightly disappointing earnings expectations for 2025 [1] - The target price has been adjusted upwards by 7% from HKD 7 to HKD 7.5, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Operational Insights - The operating profit from the mainland utility business has decreased by 2% year-on-year to HKD 30.41 billion, primarily due to a decline in household connections resulting from a sluggish real estate market [1] - This downward trend in household connections is expected to continue into 2026 [1] Market Risks - There is a potential downside risk to the retail gas unit gross margin if the conflict in the Middle East persists [1] - An estimated decrease of RMB 0.01 in retail gas unit gross margin could lead to a reduction of approximately RMB 136 million or 2.4% in net profit for 2026 compared to baseline forecasts [1]

大和指出，管理层在分析员会议上表示，地缘政治带来的能源供应风险仍然有限。在香港，公司依赖从 澳洲进口的25年液化天然气长期合约，定价基本锁定；在内地，约90%天然气供应来自国内，其余主要 来自管道进口及小部分液化天然气，有效限制对全球价格波动的风险敞口。 该行表示，与香港公用事业同业相比，煤气约4.8%的派息率仍具吸引力，长江基建(01038)、及电能实 业(00006)股息率分别约4%及4.6%,，中电(00002)则约4.3%。同时，随着可持续航空燃料业务盈利能力 改善，预期煤气将在本地公用事业板块中跑赢同业。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，维持香港中华煤气(00003)"跑赢大市"评级，目标价为7.7港元， 煤气2025财年业绩显示，核心经营利润按年上升4%至59.9亿港元，反映公用事业盈利稳定及成本控制 措施见效。董事会维持全年每股派息0.35港元不变。 ...

责任编辑：史丽君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 瑞银发布研报称，香港中华煤气（00003）2025财年核心经营利润为60亿港元，同比增长4%，大致符合 该行及市场预期。增长主要受香港燃气业务稳健及财务费用下降所带动，部分被内地城市燃气利润因新 接驳量疲弱而下跌2%所抵销。该行给予煤气"中性"评级，目标价7港元。 该行表示，内地城市燃气业务利润受惠于每立方米毛利由0.52港元上升至0.54港元，但部分被新接驳量 由168万户降至145万户所抵销，燃气销量大致持平。绿色燃料业务分部亏损则收窄至1.58亿港元。 瑞银预期投资者对业绩持中性至略为负面看法。故对行业维持大致中性立场，认为城市燃气销量增长将 放缓，而上游价格波动可能对单位利润构成短期压力。但瑞银对EcoCeres的发展持正面看法，其产能提 升速度较预期快，有望加速订单吸纳及吸引战略投资者。 瑞银发布研报称，香港中华煤气（00003）2025财年核心经营利润为60亿港元，同比增长4%，大致符合 该行及市场预期。增长主要受香港燃气业务稳健及财务费用下降所带动，部分被 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) is expected to achieve a core operating profit of HKD 6 billion for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4%, which is in line with the bank's and market expectations [1] Company Summary - The growth in profit is primarily driven by stable performance in Hong Kong's gas business and a decrease in financial expenses, partially offset by a 2% decline in profits from mainland city gas due to weak new connections [1] - UBS maintains a "Neutral" rating on the company with a target price of HKD 7 [1] - Profit from the mainland city gas business benefits from an increase in gross profit per cubic meter from HKD 0.52 to HKD 0.54, although this is offset by a decrease in new connections from 1.68 million to 1.45 million, with gas sales remaining relatively flat [1] - The green fuel business segment's losses have narrowed to HKD 158 million [1] Industry Summary - UBS anticipates a neutral to slightly negative outlook from investors regarding the company's performance [1] - The firm maintains a generally neutral stance on the industry, believing that growth in city gas sales will slow down, and upstream price fluctuations may exert short-term pressure on unit profits [1] - UBS holds a positive view on EcoCeres, noting that its capacity expansion is faster than expected, which may accelerate order absorption and attract strategic investors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup has raised the target price for Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) by 7%, from HKD 7 to HKD 7.5, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - The company faces challenges such as a reduction in gross profit margins from retail natural gas sales in mainland China [1] - Citigroup has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 downwards by 5-7% due to slightly lower-than-expected earnings in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The reasons for maintaining a "Neutral" rating include: 1) a sustainable dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, which corresponds to a projected dividend yield of 4.8% for 2026 [1] - The Hong Kong business has relatively low risk and contributes to half of the company's earnings [1] - The advanced biofuel business has shown improvement, although it is expected to account for less than 5% of total earnings in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.90 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 54.3 billion for 2025, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, while core profit increased by 4% to HKD 6.0 billion, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy with a payout of HKD 0.35, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 4.8% [1]. - The report highlights the company's strong energy security advantages and the profitability turning point for green fuel business, supporting the investment thesis [1]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Gas - In 2025, Hong Kong gas sales remained stable at 27,181 TJ, with residential gas consumption increasing due to lower average temperatures, offsetting slight declines in commercial and industrial gas usage [2]. - The company added 20,000 new customers, benefiting from the Northern Metropolis Development Plan, which aims to provide over 500,000 residential units over 20 years, potentially increasing gas demand [2]. - The EBITDA margin for Hong Kong is expected to remain around 50% in 2026 [2]. Mainland City Gas - In 2025, mainland city gas sales volume was 36.35 billion cubic meters, remaining flat year-on-year, with slight growth in residential gas due to old community renovations and new user connections [3]. - The gas price difference improved to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter, driven entirely by residential gas price increases, with a price adjustment coverage rate of 90% [3]. - The report anticipates a further increase in the city gas price difference to RMB 0.56 per cubic meter in 2026 [3]. Green Fuel - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity is expected to reach 770,000 tons by the end of 2025, with significant price increases observed in SAF and HVO since the beginning of the year [4]. - The green methanol strategy aligns with policy cycles, with the Foshan plant expected to start production by the end of 2027, matching the implementation of IMO shipping emission reduction targets [4]. - The report projects a sales target of 40,000 tons for green methanol in 2026, catering to shipping and green chemical demands [4]. Free Cash Flow and Valuation - The report suggests that the company's free cash flow is likely to exceed expectations, with a target price adjustment to HKD 7.90, reflecting a 19% premium over the historical average [5][29]. - The company’s estimated net profit for 2026-2028 is projected at HKD 6.09 billion, HKD 6.45 billion, and HKD 6.77 billion, respectively [5]. - The report adjusts the valuation to 2.5x PB for 2026, maintaining the previous year's multiple, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [5][29].