Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and market share in brokerage, indicating a long-term positive trend despite short-term performance fluctuations [6][7] - The company reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with significant contributions from existing home transactions and emerging businesses [6][7] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, having repurchased shares worth 716 million USD and planned a cash dividend of 400 million USD, representing 5% of the market value at the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 110.740 billion yuan (18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 122.649 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) - 2027E: 135.786 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) [6][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan (-31% YoY) - 2025E: 6.201 billion yuan (53% YoY) - 2026E: 7.544 billion yuan (22% YoY) - 2027E: 9.121 billion yuan (21% YoY) [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.76 yuan - 2026E: 2.14 yuan - 2027E: 2.58 yuan [6][10] Market Share and Business Segments - The company achieved a record high market share of 31% in existing home transactions for 2024, with a transaction volume of 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% YoY [6][7] - In the new home segment, the company reported a transaction volume of 970 billion yuan, down 3.3% YoY, but maintained a market share of 11.4% [6][8] - The company’s home decoration and rental services saw significant revenue growth, with home decoration revenue increasing by 36% and rental services by 135% [6][8] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the company’s revenue and brokerage market share are at record highs, and despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7]
贝壳-W：收入和经纪市占率均创新高，业绩波动不改长期向好趋势-20250320