策略点评报告：3月FOMC点评：安抚市场的通胀暂时论

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate and projected two rate cuts for the year, with inflation expectations slightly raised to 2.7% for PCE and 2.8% for core PCE, while GDP growth was downgraded to 1.7% and unemployment rate increased to 4.4% [2][3] - The Fed views the current inflation rise as temporary, attributing it to short-term sentiment rather than long-term trends, and sees no significant upward pressure on inflation expectations over the next five years [3][4] - The Fed's monetary policy is in a wait-and-see mode, with no immediate need for tightening, as current economic conditions do not warrant proactive measures [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a broad rally, with improved liquidity expected to boost major indices, while the bond market is also positively influenced by the Fed's stance on interest rates [6] - Gold prices have risen above $3050, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields, while the U.S. dollar index has rebounded, reflecting stronger economic and inflation expectations compared to Europe [6] - The macro outlook suggests a potential technical recession in Q1 2025, but a deep recession is unlikely due to the Fed's current support measures [7] Group 3 - Investment strategies focus on sectors likely to benefit from rate cuts, including small-cap stocks, healthcare, real estate, and financials, as well as growth sectors like quantum technology and aerospace [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming policy changes, such as tariffs and geopolitical negotiations, which could impact market sentiment [7][8] - The bond market strategy suggests a short-term bearish outlook but a long-term bullish stance, capitalizing on liquidity recovery and upcoming bond issuances [9]