渤海证券研究所晨会纪要-2025-03-20

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the engineering machinery industry and an "Increase" rating for specific companies including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery sector shows a significant recovery, with excavator sales in China increasing by 51.40% year-on-year in January-February 2025, reaching a total of 17,000 units sold [4]. - The government’s focus on stabilizing the real estate market is expected to drive demand for engineering machinery, particularly through urban renewal and the renovation of old residential areas [4]. - The machinery industry is experiencing a positive trend, with a notable increase in operating hours for excavators and forklift sales [3]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery Industry - In February, the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China reached 56.8 hours, a year-on-year increase of 100.7% [3]. - Forklift sales in February totaled 101,500 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 49.1% [3]. - The national engineering machinery operating rate was reported at 35.10%, with lifting equipment showing particularly strong performance [3]. Company Announcements - Haomai Technology reported a 22.99% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024 [3]. - Huaguang New Materials plans to invest 300 million RMB in a production base in Thailand [3]. - Xingguang Agricultural Machinery intends to acquire a 51% stake in Suzhou Dazhong Fuel Injection Technology Co., Ltd [3]. Market Performance - From March 12 to March 18, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.68%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector fell by 0.62%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.30 percentage points [3]. - As of March 18, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 30.36 times, with a valuation premium of 146.27% compared to the CSI 300 [4]. Metal Industry - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel industry, with increased downstream demand expected as the consumption peak season approaches [7]. - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, which is expected to support prices, while the aluminum market is influenced by domestic economic policies and international trade issues [6][7]. Company Focus: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has been a leader in the pet food industry for 27 years, with a revenue of 3.189 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.56% [8]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with sales covering over 80 countries and regions, and has seen an average annual growth of over 20% in overseas revenue from 2018 to the first half of 2024 [9]. - The pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. market expected to exceed 66 billion USD in 2024 and reach 112 billion USD by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 8.97% [8].