美联储2025年3月议息会议前瞻：美联储：犹豫的代价？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding future interest rate cuts, with economic forecasts remaining neutral[1] - The dot plot from the upcoming meeting is anticipated to be more dispersed, indicating decreased guidance significance from the median expectations of the voting members[2] - Two potential policy scenarios are identified: moderate inflation decline leading to a rate cut in Q2, or persistent inflation resulting in sustained high rates and potential economic downturn[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Funds target rate is projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.50%[2] - February's employment data shows a healthy labor market, with non-farm payrolls continuing an upward trend and job openings exceeding expectations[3] - CPI growth in February was below expectations, indicating a cooling in both goods and services inflation, but the Fed remains cautious about declaring a definitive downward trend in inflation[3] Group 3: Future Economic Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is increasing, with significant implications for economic forecasts expected in April[4] - The likelihood of a sharp economic downturn and significant stock market adjustments is considered high if inflation remains stubbornly high, leading to a "remedial" rate cut by the Fed[7] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) may be on the agenda, especially as the U.S. Treasury approaches the limits of its current funding[7]