从“衰退”到“滞胀”，美联储放慢缩表

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [23]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the rate at 4.25-4.5%, and has slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction, decreasing monthly Treasury bond sales from $25 billion to $5 billion [1][2]. - The overall message from the recent FOMC meeting is one of "no change," with a dovish tilt due to the Fed's concerns about economic growth slowing more than inflation [2][3]. - The Fed has adjusted its 2025 inflation forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%, while lowering growth expectations by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7% and raising the unemployment rate forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2][3]. - The Fed's decision to slow the reduction of its balance sheet signals a greater concern for economic growth over inflation, reflecting a potential "stagflation" scenario [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed has decided to maintain the federal funds rate and slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2]. - The reduction in Treasury bond sales is a significant shift from previous plans, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2][3]. Economic Outlook - The Fed has expressed heightened concerns about the economic outlook, with a notable shift in language regarding the balance of risks to employment and inflation goals [2][3]. - Future growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been slightly downgraded, indicating a cautious stance on economic recovery [3]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose but later showed signs of volatility, suggesting ongoing market concerns despite the Fed's reassurances [4]. - The long-term yield on U.S. Treasuries is expected to stabilize between 4.0% and 4.5%, with potential for higher yields if economic conditions worsen [4].