美联储3月议息会议点评：维持利率，放缓缩表

Investment Rating - The report maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and indicates a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction process [7][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time since the rate cut in September 2024, while also reducing the monthly limit for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's economic outlook shows a weakening economy, with an upward revision of the unemployment rate to 4.4% for 2025, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward to 2.7% for the same year [15][20]. - The dot plot indicates that nearly 80% of members expect at least a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with close to 60% anticipating a 50 basis point cut [13][15]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, with the total assets decreasing from a peak of $8.96 trillion in March 2022 to $6.8 trillion as of March 12, 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's statement removed the phrase "risk balance" and emphasized economic stability, noting that recent indicators show steady economic expansion [10][20]. Economic Projections - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, while maintaining long-term growth expectations at 1.8% [15][17]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2025, with core inflation expectations adjusted to 2.8% for the same year [15][17]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a rate cut in June 2025, with a potential 50 basis point reduction anticipated [20][21]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell stated that there is no rush to cut rates, emphasizing the need for clearer market signals before making policy adjustments [18][20].