平安好医生：首次实现全面盈利，业务结构优化助力未来发展-20250320

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) with a target price of HK$10.30, representing a potential upside of 34$7.71 [1][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first full-year profitability in 2024, with total revenue of RMB 4.808 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit of RMB 0.081 billion [6][11]. - The report highlights a significant upward revision of the target price from HK$5.56 to HK$10.30, reflecting improved revenue and profit forecasts [2][18]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of RMB 5.321 billion, RMB 6.147 billion, and RMB 7.156 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [15][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 4.808 billion, with a gross profit margin of 31.7% [6][10]. - The healthcare services segment generated revenue of RMB 2.169 billion, while the health services segment saw a decline to RMB 2.356 billion [24]. - The elderly care services segment experienced significant growth, with revenue increasing to RMB 0.283 billion from RMB 0.055 billion in the previous year [8][24]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report projects an increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E to RMB 0.07, up from RMB 0.05, and for 2026E to RMB 0.10, up from RMB 0.07 [2][15]. - The net profit forecast for 2025E is adjusted to RMB 1.41 billion, down from previous estimates due to increased management and sales expenses [15][16]. Business Segments - The medical services revenue is expected to grow to RMB 2.316 billion in 2025E, while health services revenue is projected at RMB 2.439 billion [17][24]. - The elderly care services revenue is anticipated to rise significantly to RMB 0.566 billion in 2025E, reflecting a strategic focus on integrated elderly care solutions [8][17]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage DCF valuation method, resulting in a target price of HK$10.30, which corresponds to a 2025 P/S ratio of 4.34x, higher than the industry average of 2.1x [18][19]. - The WACC is maintained at 9.2%, with a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [18][19].