2025年1-2月经济数据点评：投资加快，消费向好

Economic Growth - In the first two months of 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.51% in February[9] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 52,619 billion yuan, growing by 4.1% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[18] - Social retail sales totaled 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the end of last year[22] Investment and Policy - The total scale of new government debt is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, with a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity[18] - Central budget investment is planned at 735 billion yuan, up 350 billion yuan from last year, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy[18] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies, while manufacturing investment remains stable with a growth rate above 9%[18] Consumer Behavior - Consumption in sectors excluding building materials and automobiles has rebounded, particularly in clothing, jewelry, and communication equipment, likely driven by the Spring Festival[29] - Restaurant consumption has significantly increased, indicating that the rebound in consumption is primarily driven by the food service sector[29] - Urban retail sales grew by 3.8%, while rural retail sales increased by 4.6%, showing a stronger recovery in rural areas[22] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in the first two months was 10,720 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year[19] - The improvement in real estate sales and funding sources indicates a potential stabilization in the real estate market, supported by various policies[21] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[31]