SHANYING INTERNATIONAL(600567) 海通证券·2025-03-20 05:29Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic packaging paper industry, with a total production capacity of approximately 8.12 million tons, ranking second in China. It has established six major paper production bases across various provinces [6][10] - The company is expected to incur losses in 2024, with a projected net profit of -364 million yuan, but profitability is anticipated to recover in 2025 with a net profit of 601 million yuan [5][10] - The average price of boxboard paper is expected to recover in 2025, which will positively impact profitability as demand gradually rebounds [6][10] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 34,014 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 29,333 million yuan in 2023, followed by a recovery to 30,792 million yuan in 2024 and further growth to 33,370 million yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The net profit is projected to be -2,256 million yuan in 2022, recovering to 156 million yuan in 2023, and reaching 601 million yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be -0.41 yuan in 2022, improving to 0.03 yuan in 2023, and reaching 0.11 yuan in 2025 [6][10] Business Segments - The raw paper segment is expected to see sales revenue of 19,241.35 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -11.75%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [9] - The paper products segment is projected to generate sales revenue of 7,079.94 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -7.78%, also expected to improve in the following years [9] Valuation - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 17 to 18 times, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 1.87 to 1.98 yuan per share [6][10]