3月美联储议息会议解读：开始松动了

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the performance is expected to be in line with the market benchmark [22]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to continue pausing interest rate cuts and will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, reducing the monthly limit for U.S. Treasury bond sales from $25 billion to$5 billion [1][4]. - The dot plot released in March indicates that there may be two interest rate cuts within the year, with the median target rate for 2025 expected to be 3.9% [4][11]. - Economic uncertainty has increased, with the forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 being significantly downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7% [11][12]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, while the PCE inflation expectation has been raised to 2.7% [2][8]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [4][11]. - The Fed's balance sheet reduction will proceed at a slower pace, indicating a more measured approach to monetary tightening [1][4]. Employment and Inflation - Employment conditions remain stable, but the unemployment rate has slightly increased, with the U6 unemployment rate reaching a new high since the end of 2021 [5][9]. - Inflation is expected to experience temporary upward pressure due to tariffs, despite a general decline in core inflation rates [2][9]. Economic Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with consumer spending remaining low and some manufacturers expressing concerns over tariff policies [12][11]. - The overall economic activity is still expanding, but the pace is expected to slow down, influenced by high interest rates and government policy changes [12][11].