华润啤酒：当下极具投资价值-20250320

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a target price raised to HKD 41.8, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current stock price of HKD 30.05 [1][5][4]. Core Insights - The overall consumption environment is under pressure, leading to a 2.5% decline in total sales volume, while high-end product sales grew by 9%. The average selling price increased by 1.5%, and gross profit per thousand liters rose by 4.9% [2][4]. - The company is implementing a "Three Precision" strategy focusing on streamlined management, lean cost control, and meticulous operations to drive growth in a stagnant market [2][4]. - The white liquor segment showed steady growth, with revenue reaching RMB 2.15 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and an EBITDA of RMB 850 million, reflecting a profit margin of 39.6% [3][4]. Financial Summary - In 2024, total revenue is projected at RMB 39.65 billion, with a slight growth of 2.62% expected in 2025 and 1.12% in 2026. Net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 5.22 billion, RMB 5.44 billion, and RMB 5.68 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.73, HKD 1.80, and HKD 1.88 [9][11][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 42.34% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.16% [11][17]. - The company plans to continue increasing its dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of RMB 0.76 per share for the year, representing a payout ratio of 52% [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 41.8 based on a 25x PE ratio and a DCF valuation suggesting a fair market value of HKD 42.6 [12][4]. - The average PE ratio of comparable companies is noted at 21.4x, while the report assigns a higher multiple to China Resources Beer due to its market position and growth prospects [12][14].