Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the consumption finance industry is experiencing a slight decline in credit growth due to macroeconomic demand constraints and cautious lending strategies from credit technology platforms. However, the profitability elasticity is expected to improve as asset quality trends show signs of recovery [6][9][39] - The report highlights the importance of credit costs as a core factor influencing profitability elasticity, with a focus on the differentiation in return on equity (ROE) among listed credit technology platforms [45][49] Summary by Sections 1. Volume Decline, Price Stability, and Quality Improvement - The overall credit growth has slightly declined, with the loan balance growth rates for Q3 2024 being -16% for Qifu, -8% for Lexin, and +3% for Xinye [9][10] - Loan yield rates remain stable due to the weak bargaining power of tail-end customers, with Qifu's annualized loan yield increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 21.9% in Q3 2024 [9][27] - Financing costs for credit technology platforms have decreased, with Qifu's annualized financing cost rate dropping by 1.16 percentage points to 3.99% in Q3 2024 [9][29] - The 90-day+ overdue rates have shown slight improvement in Q3 2024, with Qifu, Lexin, and Xinye reporting rates of 2.72%, 3.70%, and 2.50% respectively [9][34] 2. Profitability Breakdown: Light and Heavy Capital Models - The annualized ROE for Q1 2024 is reported as 22.7% for Qifu, 8.6% for Lexin, and 15.3% for Xinye, indicating a significant disparity in profitability performance [45][49] - The revenue structure is influenced by the arrangement of light and heavy capital, with Qifu, Lexin, and Xinye's credit-related business income take rates being 27.9%, 52.3%, and 55.9% respectively [45][51] - Credit costs are identified as a critical factor affecting profitability elasticity, with credit impairment provisions for Q1 2024 being -9.5% for Qifu, -20.7% for Lexin, and -24.8% for Xinye [45][51] 3. Policy Support Encouraging Consumption Finance Market Development - Recent government reports emphasize boosting consumption, with policies expected to positively impact the consumption finance market [59] - The report anticipates that online credit technology platforms focusing on tail-end customer segments will be among the first to benefit from industry recovery, with ongoing improvements in asset quality [59]
消费金融系列报告（三）：从头部信贷科技平台看长尾客群变化
Ping An Securities·2025-03-20 07:00