华泰证券-3月FOMC点评：_有限”鸽派的美联储

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the benchmark [35]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations. The statement noted increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, with short-term inflation risks rising and employment risks declining [2][3]. - The Fed plans to reduce the scale of quantitative tightening (QT) starting in April, with a monthly reduction cap for Treasury securities set to $5 billion, down from $25 billion, while maintaining a $35 billion cap for agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities [2][8]. - Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, with GDP growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while unemployment rate expectations for 2025 have been raised to 4.4% [3][10]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting highlighted a cautious approach to monetary policy, with officials indicating a need for data-driven decisions due to heightened economic uncertainty [2][3]. - The dot plot revealed a narrowing of opinions regarding the number of rate cuts expected in 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated, but with increased divergence on the magnitude of those cuts [3]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and stock markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [9][12]. - The market is pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut in 2025, reflecting an increase in expectations following the FOMC meeting [9]. Future Policy Outlook - The report suggests that the U.S. economy may face a "stagflation-like" environment, complicating the Fed's decision-making between employment and inflation control [10]. - The Fed's decision to slow down the balance sheet reduction is seen as a precautionary measure, with potential for further adjustments depending on liquidity conditions [10][11]. Asset Allocation Insights - U.S. Treasuries are viewed as a high-probability investment, but the potential for significant rate cuts may be limited by inflation risks [11]. - The report advises a cautious stance on U.S. equities due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic performance, suggesting a diversified asset allocation strategy [12][13].