2025年1-2月社零数据跟踪报告：1-2月社零总额同比+4.0%，增速环比回升

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - In January-February 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to December 2024 [2][15]. - The growth in retail sales is attributed to the recovery in consumer demand, particularly in cultural, sports, and communication equipment sectors, likely driven by increased travel and entertainment activities around the Spring Festival [4][41]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2025 increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a total of 837.31 billion yuan, marking a recovery from the previous month [2][15]. - Retail sales in urban areas grew by 3.8%, while rural areas saw a higher growth of 4.6% [18]. Segment Analysis - Essential consumer goods showed steady growth, with notable increases in categories such as food and daily necessities. For instance, the food category grew by 11.5% and daily necessities by 5.7% [20][21]. - Among discretionary items, categories like cosmetics (+4.4%), cultural office supplies (+21.8%), and sports entertainment (+25.0%) exhibited significant growth, while beverages saw a decline of 2.6% [23][24]. Online Retail Performance - Online retail sales reached 227.63 billion yuan in January-February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, accounting for 27.19% of total retail sales [4][38]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 186.33 billion yuan, with food items growing by 10.8% [38][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, particularly the liquor industry, which is expected to recover due to increased demand from weddings and celebrations [42]. - In the retail sector, attention is drawn to gold and jewelry, which are expected to benefit from rising gold prices and consumer willingness to pay for quality craftsmanship [43]. - The cosmetics sector is highlighted for its strong growth potential, particularly for domestic brands that are gaining market share [44].