西部证券-2025年3月FOMC会议点评：经济前景不确定性增加，美联储放缓QT速度

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the industry, with a focus on the potential for volatility and economic uncertainty [12]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% and will slow down the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) starting April 1, reducing the monthly redemption cap on government bonds from $25 billion to $5 billion [3]. - Economic forecasts have been downgraded, with GDP growth expectations for 2025-2027 revised to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9% [5]. - The unemployment rate projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3%, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate forecasts are now 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights an increase in economic uncertainty, with the Fed acknowledging that the risks to achieving employment and inflation targets are no longer balanced [3][5]. - Consumer confidence has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 57.9 in March from 64.7 in February, marking three consecutive months of decline [7]. Federal Reserve's Position - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is in a position to either cut rates or maintain a restrictive stance, emphasizing the need for clearer signals before making policy adjustments [6]. - The report notes that inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations rising recently [6]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets showed signs of recovery, while the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell [7]. - The report suggests that the short-term correction in U.S. equities may not be over, as economic data has yet to stabilize [8].