招商证券-3月美联储议息会议点评：美联储确认滞胀场景弱化QT Taper影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, suggesting that the industry fundamentals are stable and expected to follow the benchmark index [28]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts but has slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction, indicating a slightly hawkish stance. The economic outlook has been adjusted downwards while inflation expectations have been raised [5][10]. - The report highlights a divergence between strong hard data (GDP, employment) and weak soft data (economic and inflation survey expectations), with Powell favoring the former [3][9]. - The anticipated economic growth rates for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% respectively, compared to previous expectations of 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9% [5][16]. - The core PCE inflation growth expectations for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.8%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, up from 2.5%, 2.2%, and 2.0% [5][16]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes increased uncertainty in economic activity, with consumer spending showing signs of slowing down. Surveys indicate heightened uncertainty regarding consumption and investment [9][10]. - The labor market remains robust, with low unemployment rates and wage growth outpacing inflation, suggesting a balanced employment situation [9][10]. - Inflation expectations have been influenced by tariffs, which are delaying the decline in actual inflation rates. The report notes that while inflation levels have eased, they remain above the long-term target of 2% [9][10]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current policy stance is characterized by a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans for rate cuts. The focus is on filtering out noise from signals in the economic data [10][11]. - The report suggests that the tapering of the balance sheet is a technical adjustment aimed at achieving a soft landing for the balance sheet, with no immediate impact on monetary policy expectations [10][11]. - Market sentiment is currently negative, potentially due to significant early government reforms, but there is a possibility for recovery in the second quarter [12][14]. Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decisions, U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.08%, 1.41%, and 0.92% respectively. The dollar index rose by 0.46% to 103.72 [14][12]. - The report indicates that while short-term volatility in the stock market may persist, the second quarter presents a favorable risk-reward scenario for tactical trading strategies [12][14].