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中国平安:业绩及分红均超预期,下调投资收益率假设50bps-20250320

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance and dividend for 2024 exceeded expectations, leading to a downward adjustment of the investment return assumption by 50 basis points to 4.0% [4][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be 126.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [4][8] - The company has a unique positioning within the sector, making it a core target with potential for valuation logic changes in a low-interest-rate environment [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 126.61 billion yuan and an operating profit of 121.86 billion yuan, both exceeding previous forecasts [4] - The core business segments showed varied performance: life insurance down 1.9%, property insurance up 67.7%, and banking down 4.2% [4] - The company’s NBV (New Business Value) increased by 28.8% year-on-year, with a total of 400.24 billion yuan before adjustments [5][9] - Investment assets grew significantly, with a total of 57.3 trillion yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year [6] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The dividend per share for 2024 increased by 4.9% to 2.55 yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.7% based on the closing price on March 19 [4][7] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 6.95 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 7.78 [8][10] Business Segment Insights - The individual insurance team continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase in NBV of 26.5% to 31.87 billion yuan [9] - The property insurance segment reported a significant increase in underwriting profit, with a year-on-year growth of 75 million yuan [5]