CMSK(001979) 长江证券·2025-03-20 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 178.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 36.1% to 4.04 billion yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecasted to drop by 57.3% to 2.45 billion yuan. The decline in net profit is primarily due to increased impairment losses and a decrease in gross margin [6][11]. - The company maintains its position as the fifth largest in sales scale within the industry, with a sales revenue of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.3%. Despite a decline in land acquisition amounting to 48.6 billion yuan (down 57.1%), the quality of land acquired remains high, with 90% of investments in core cities [11][11]. - The average financing cost at the end of 2024 is 2.99%, a decrease of 48 basis points from the previous year, indicating a sustained credit advantage. The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio above 40%, with a cash dividend of 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, corresponding to a payout ratio of 43% [11][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 14.6%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 4.04 billion yuan, a significant decline from the previous year [6][11]. - The company anticipates revenue pressures in 2025, with projected net profits of 4.2 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, and 4.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 20.8X, 19.4X, and 17.7X [11]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales revenue for 2024 is expected to be 219.3 billion yuan, with a notable decline in sales across the quarters, but a positive growth of 10.1% in the fourth quarter [11]. - The land acquisition amount has decreased significantly, but the company continues to focus on high-quality land in key cities, with 59% of investments in first-tier cities [11]. Credit and Financial Health - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong safety margin, with a net debt ratio of 55.85% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.59. The average financing cost has decreased, reinforcing its credit advantage in the industry [11][11]. - The company has also expanded its management area in construction services, achieving significant growth in this segment [11].