开源证券-3月FOMC会议点评：美联储强调不确定性，降息或将更加灵活

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the industry, indicating a cautious outlook on future performance [53]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% while reducing the monthly limit for Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, maintaining a $35 billion reduction for MBS [3][19]. - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with the GDP growth rate for 2025 revised down to 1.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while inflation predictions for PCE and core PCE have been raised to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively [23][30]. - The market's risk appetite has shown signs of recovery following the Fed's announcement, with significant increases in major stock indices and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Fed's statement reflects a stable labor market and acknowledges slight inflation increases, with internal dissent indicating differing views on economic conditions [19][20]. - The Fed's flexibility in lowering interest rates is expected to increase, with potential cuts of 2-3 times in 2025, contingent on economic performance [6][33]. 2. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 and raised its inflation expectations, suggesting that the impact of Trump's policies on inflation may be temporary [23][30]. - The median federal funds rate forecast for 2025 remains at 3.4%, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut [23][30]. 3. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.92% and 1.41% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% [42]. - The dollar index has seen a slight decline, and gold prices have increased, indicating a shift in market sentiment [42].