美联储3月议息会议点评：“特朗普新政”引发通胀担忧，但仍待数据验证

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the industry, indicating a "Market Perform" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to perform in line with the market over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds rate target unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% aligns with market expectations, with a forecast of a total rate cut of 100 basis points in 2024 [2][6]. - Economic indicators suggest a stable economic environment, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [2][6]. - Concerns regarding inflation and the impact of the Trump administration's policies on economic stability are prevalent, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach [3][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting did not provide significant signals, with a focus on calming market sentiment amid concerns over the Trump administration's policies [3][7]. - The Fed's decision to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction is a response to market volatility caused by new tariffs and geopolitical tensions [3][7]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with a PMI of 50.3%, while the unemployment rate remains below the natural rate at 4.1% [2][6]. - Recent inflation expectations have rebounded, approaching levels seen in 2021, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [3][7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests maintaining a position in gold while adopting a wait-and-see approach towards U.S. equities and bonds, reflecting uncertainty in the market [3][7].