CMSK(001979) 华创证券·2025-03-20 10:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 11 yuan for 2025 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing temporary profit pressure, with a projected revenue of approximately 178.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.25%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 36.09% to around 4.04 billion yuan [2][9]. - The company's balance sheet shows significant improvement, with cash and cash equivalents increasing by 12.1 billion yuan to a historical high, despite an increase in interest-bearing liabilities by 14.3 billion yuan [9][10]. - The company has focused its land acquisition strategy on core cities, with 90% of its investment in 2024 concentrated in the top 10 cities, and a notable 52% of land acquisition in Shanghai alone [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 178.95 billion yuan, with a decline expected in subsequent years [5]. - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 4.04 billion yuan, with a recovery anticipated in 2025 and beyond, reaching 4.83 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.70 billion yuan in 2026 [5][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to be 0.45 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.53 yuan in 2025 and 0.63 yuan in 2026 [5][10]. - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 21 for 2024, decreasing to 18 in 2025 and further to 15 in 2026 [5][10]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain stable at around 0.8 for 2025 and 2026 [5][10]. Market Performance - The company's sales amount is expected to decline by 25% in 2024, with a total sales revenue of 219.3 billion yuan [9][10]. - The overall investment intensity is projected to decrease to 22% in 2024 from 39% in 2023, indicating a more cautious approach to new investments [9][10].