有色金属：刚果（金）锡矿停产，锡价中枢有望继续上移

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has escalated, leading to significant supply disruptions in tin production, particularly from Alphamin Resources' Bisie mine, which is the third-largest tin mine globally. The mine's output for 2024 was projected at 17,300 tons, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin supply, with plans to increase production to 20,000 tons in 2025. If the mine remains closed until the end of the year, it could reduce global tin supply by 15,000 tons in 2025 [2][9][10] - The ongoing conflict and the failure of peace negotiations between the DRC government and the M23 movement suggest that the situation may remain unresolved for an extended period, further impacting tin supply [2][10] - Domestic tin supply in China is under pressure due to low self-sufficiency, with imports expected to reach 52,000 tons in 2024, of which over 20,000 tons will come from the DRC. The shutdown of Alphamin's operations will exacerbate the tight supply situation, leading to a decline in processing fees for tin concentrate [3][10] - The combination of constrained supply and increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic installations, and a recovering semiconductor cycle indicates a positive outlook for tin prices, with expectations of a continued upward shift in price levels [3][13] Summary by Sections Supply Disruption - The suspension of mining operations at Alphamin's Bisie mine due to conflict in the DRC has led to a significant impact on global tin supply, with potential reductions in output for 2025 [2][9] - The DRC has become China's largest source of tin ore imports, further highlighting the importance of the region in global tin supply chains [3][10] Market Dynamics - The processing fees for tin concentrate in China have been declining, indicating pressure on smelting companies due to supply constraints [3][10] - The anticipated global tin supply-demand gap could reach 20,000 tons this year if Alphamin's operations remain halted, suggesting a tightening market [13] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for tin prices remains positive, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies and renewable energy sectors [4][13]