Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 33% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenue reaching 16.11 billion RMB, up 23% year-over-year and 59% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - The net loss for 2024 was narrowed to 5.79 billion RMB, with Q4 net loss at 1.33 billion RMB, showing improvement [8]. - Vehicle sales revenue in Q4 was 14.67 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 67% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased deliveries of 92,000 units, which is a 52% year-over-year and 97% quarter-over-quarter increase [8]. - The company is expected to continue strong performance in 2025, with a forecast of 91,000-93,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 317%-326% [8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 90.83 billion RMB, 130.71 billion RMB, and 152.66 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.2 billion RMB, 2.9 billion RMB, and 6.5 billion RMB [2][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 14.3% in 2024, up 12.8 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM at 14.4% [8]. - The company plans to expand its global presence, targeting over 60 countries by the end of 2025, with a goal for overseas sales to account for 50% of total sales in the next 10 years [8]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.8, 1.3, and 1.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. - The target price is set at 103.90 HKD, based on a PS of 2.0 times for 2025 [8].
小鹏汽车-W：公司公告点评：24Q4营收攀新高，强势产品周期+技术降本持续推动量利双升-20250320