Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 21% based on a target market capitalization of 34.7 billion HKD for 2025 [6][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%. However, it reported a net loss of 210 million CNY primarily due to goodwill impairment of 1.1 billion CNY from New Classics Media [1][6]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, was 1.14 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 1% year-on-year [1][6]. - The online reading business stabilized with a revenue of 4.03 billion CNY in 2024, marking a 2% increase, while the paid reading segment grew by 3% [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.012 billion CNY - 2024: 8.121 billion CNY - 2025E: 8.164 billion CNY - 2026E: 8.591 billion CNY - 2027E: 9.056 billion CNY - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1.13 billion CNY - 2024: 1.14 billion CNY - 2025E: 1.28 billion CNY - 2026E: 1.42 billion CNY - 2027E: 1.56 billion CNY [3][7]. Business Developments - New Classics Media's goodwill risk has been released, with a reported net profit of 340 million CNY in 2024, the lowest in 19 years, due to poor box office performance affecting overall results [6]. - The company plans to focus on high-quality content, which may extend the development cycle of new projects and increase production costs, leading to a decline in profit expectations over the next few years [6]. - The derivative products and other copyright operations have shown positive progress, with a revenue increase of 36% in 2024, excluding New Classics Media [6].
阅文集团：2024：新丽释放商誉风险，在线阅读企稳，衍生品进展积极-20250320