事件点评：锚点通胀向就业，政策强“鹰”向弱“鹰”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards investment, suggesting a neutral stance on the industry performance relative to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, signaling a shift in policy focus from inflation to employment, which is interpreted as a dovish signal by the market [1][4]. - The Fed plans to slow down its balance sheet reduction starting in April, decreasing monthly Treasury redemptions from $250 billion to $50 billion, while keeping MBS redemptions unchanged [4][5]. - The Fed's economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.4% [4][6]. - Inflation expectations have been revised upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2025 increased from 2.5% to 2.7% and core PCE from 2.5% to 2.8% [4][6]. - The market anticipates a higher likelihood of rate cuts, with futures indicating expectations for three rate cuts this year, despite the Fed's guidance suggesting only two [4][9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Fed's recent policy shift emphasizes employment over inflation, reflecting a more cautious approach to monetary policy [1][4]. - The removal of language indicating a balance of risks between employment and inflation suggests a heightened focus on employment risks [4]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 while raising inflation expectations, indicating concerns about potential stagflation [4][6]. - The adjustments in forecasts highlight the Fed's ongoing challenges in balancing economic growth and inflation control [4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, there was a notable increase in both short-term stock and bond markets, reflecting investor optimism about the dovish signals [4][5]. - The market's reaction underscores the sensitivity of investors to changes in Fed policy and economic outlook [4].