Xinda Securities·2025-03-20 12:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the new tobacco industry is harm reduction, with significant growth potential for Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products. The global market sizes for HNB cartridges, vaping refills, and disposable vaping products in 2023 are estimated at 32.3 billion, 13.5 billion, and 5.4 billion USD respectively, with a CAGR of 21.3% for HNB cartridges from 2019 to 2023 [2][29] - The United States and China are expected to become core markets for HNB products, with projections indicating that HNB penetration in the U.S. could reach 30% by 2030, leading to a significant increase in cartridge consumption [3][4] - Major tobacco companies are accelerating their transition towards new tobacco products, with significant revenue shares from HNB products. For instance, Philip Morris International plans to become a smoke-free company by 2030, with over two-thirds of its revenue coming from new tobacco products [4][21] Summary by Sections Global Tobacco Sales Trends - Global tobacco sales are declining due to stricter smoking regulations, with cigarette sales dropping from 57.5 trillion sticks in 2015 to an estimated 50.3 trillion by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of -0.56% [11][16] HNB Development Potential - HNB products are gaining traction due to their strong harm reduction capabilities, with a projected CAGR of 13.5% for the HNB market from 2023 to 2028 [2][29] - HNB products are seen as more appealing to traditional smokers due to their closer resemblance to real cigarettes, while vaping products attract younger demographics [32][37] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for HNB products is dominated by major tobacco companies, with a high concentration ratio (CR5) of 96.9% in the HNB market, indicating a stable competitive environment [5][40] - Philip Morris International holds over 70% market share in the global HNB market, while British American Tobacco is also increasing its focus on HNB products [5][21] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment for HNB products is generally more lenient compared to traditional cigarettes, with many countries adopting supportive policies that encourage the use of HNB products [41]