3月美联储议息会议点评：维持利率不变，放缓缩表步伐

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating expectations of performance within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the benchmark index [16]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while also announcing a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction, signaling a dovish stance [10][11]. - The most significant adjustment is the reduction of the monthly redemption cap for Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April, while the cap for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) remains at $35 billion [10][11]. - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with GDP growth expectations lowered to 1.7% and inflation expectations raised to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is slightly increased to 4.4% [11][12]. - Despite concerns about a potential recession, the overall economic outlook remains stable, with consumer spending showing resilience [11][12]. - The report anticipates two rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on the impact of tariffs and potential retaliatory actions from other countries [13]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting highlighted a shift towards a more cautious approach, with an emphasis on the increased uncertainty in economic prospects [10][11]. - The decision to slow down the balance sheet reduction is viewed as a permanent adjustment rather than a temporary measure [10][11]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve has revised its GDP growth forecast down to 1.7% and increased its inflation forecast to 2.7%, reflecting a cautious outlook on the economy [11][12]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.4%, indicating a stable labor market [11][12]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in the U.S. stock market may have reached their limits, with limited downside potential moving forward [13]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to provide further support to the market, particularly if economic conditions worsen due to tariffs or other external factors [13].