2024年12月FOMC会议点评：美联储“降息的心”始终不变

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the expected investment returns will be in line with market benchmarks within the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the second consecutive meeting, adjusting inflation forecasts upward while lowering economic growth predictions, which aligns with market expectations [3][5]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell indicated that inflation caused by tariffs is considered temporary, which has significantly eased market concerns, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets and a decline in bond yields [3][5][11]. - The report anticipates 2-3 potential interest rate cuts within the year, driven by economic pressures and the expected implementation of tax cuts later in the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting on March 20 resulted in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the next meeting scheduled for May 7 [2]. - The Fed's statement showed minor changes, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7]. Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts while lowering GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with GDP growth rates adjusted down by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [8][9]. - The median PCE inflation rate for 2025 is now projected at 2.7%, up from 2.5% in December [9]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.4% [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5 basis points to 3.99% [4]. Economic Health Assessment - Powell described the U.S. economy as "healthy," despite acknowledging an increased risk of recession, attributing recent economic data fluctuations to the initial turbulence of the Trump administration [11][21]. - The report highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with significant inflation pressures anticipated to manifest in the upcoming months [11][22].