Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 23.89 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, but net profit decreased by 25.4% to RMB 3.05 billion [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the year was RMB 6.8 billion, up 7.9% year-on-year, with the Huazhu segment contributing RMB 7 billion, a 12.9% increase [6]. - The company plans to maintain a rapid pace of hotel openings, targeting 2,300 new hotels in 2025 while closing 600 [6]. - The report forecasts net profits of RMB 3.47 billion, RMB 4.08 billion, and RMB 4.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.11, RMB 1.30, and RMB 1.54 [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the social services industry, with a current H-share price of HKD 28.50 and a market capitalization of RMB 77.71 billion [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of RMB 23.89 billion for 2024, with a breakdown of RMB 13.8 billion from leasing and owned hotels (up 0.3%) and RMB 9.5 billion from management and franchising (up 23.4%) [6]. - The net profit for the Huazhu segment was approximately RMB 3.6 billion, down 56.7% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange losses and increased withholding tax [6]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a high occupancy rate of 81.2% in 2024, with growth driven by its asset-light strategy and rapid expansion [6]. - A shareholder return plan totaling USD 2 billion over three years is set to enhance shareholder value, with an expected total of USD 770 million in dividends and share buybacks for the year [6].
华住集团-S：非经常性因素影响24年盈利，新一年维持开店节奏-20250321