大消费行业主题报告 20251217 摘要 新消费需求涌现，推动大消费板块发展，体现在新产品（个性化、绿色 低碳）、新渠道（零食连锁、折扣业态）和新业态（多元消费场景）三 个方向，并受"十五五"规划支持。 传统消费行业预计 2026 年回暖，居民购买力释放，行业调整修复。食 品饮料行业企稳，白酒基本面或稳定，乳制品有望快速修复。关注提振 就业、增收稳预期等政策措施。 大宗商品市场前高后低，国家出台多维度促销政策提振服务性消费和内 需，商务部等部委发布扩大服务性消费政策意见，旨在通过提升居民生 活质量激发内需潜力。 社会服务领域，旅游出行和美妆零售酝酿变化，消费者转向理性性价比 和精神追求。携程、华住等头部企业通过技术创新和营销满足新兴旅游 需求，中国中免海南业务受益于离岛免税新政。 食品饮料板块筑底企稳，白酒基本面筑底，大众消费具韧性，估值低位。 零食板块业绩分化，新产品红利释放。乳制品需求平稳，供给逐渐出清。 餐饮供应链景气度回升，预制食品龙头竞争优势凸显。 Q&A 2026 年大消费行业的整体趋势和主要推动因素是什么？ 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，预计消费刺激政策将持续落地，有 效释放居民消 ...

本文来自微信公众号"空间秘探"，作者：ABNData，36氪经授权发布。 此外在沙特阿拉伯，万豪国际集团签署麦加Courtyard by Marriott酒店管理协议，实现在沙特阿拉伯运营及筹建酒 店总数突破100家的里程碑。该酒店拥有1100间客房，由SEDCO Capital旗下基金投资开发，计划于2030年开业。 目前万豪在沙特13个品牌旗下共品牌合作44家酒店、超1.1万间客房，其中万怡品牌已有6家酒店。万豪国际集团 持续通过轻资产扩张模式，支持沙特实现年接待1亿游客的宏伟目标。 02 亚太（中国）市场发展动态 在新加坡，本月高端酒店市场迎来新的酒店项目进驻，2家老牌酒店换牌为国际连锁品牌。一是伟合控股首次涉足 酒店投资领域，携手基金管理公司Aravest，以1亿6000万元收购已在今年10月底停业的新加坡美丽华酒店，计划 将1968年开业的美丽华酒店将改造成希尔顿逸林酒店。二是星狮酒店集团旗下的新加坡洲际酒店宣布将换牌为万 豪国际集团旗下的豪华精选。 在东南亚地区，希尔顿集团在本月宣布计划在东南亚扩展其奢华及生活方式酒店品牌，通过在六个国家签署17家 新酒店项目，将会新增近4,000间客房。此次扩张 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum i ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，2025年春秋假及雪假政策显著拉动淡季旅游需求，错峰出行 成为常态，景区及旅游企业受益明显。同时，航旅纵横数据显示，国内往返四川、浙江、广东、湖北的 机票平均价格约700元，同比上涨约7%，成都至三亚、西双版纳等热门目的地航班及酒店预订量大幅提 升。政策组合措施(政府补贴+金融支持+商家优惠)有效激发居民消费意愿，文旅及冰雪产业投资机会值 得关注。同时，高基数景区及优质供给仍稀缺，研学旅游、亲子游及高频冰雪消费成为市场亮点。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 春秋假政策刺激文旅市场回暖，市场热度超预期 2025年春秋假政策落地，多地教育部门响应实施。10月，浙江、广东、湖北等省份推出秋假，浙江成为 首个全省推行省级春秋假省份，四川随后于11月4日宣布全省范围执行。春秋假通常与"五一"和国庆长 假相接，形成3至7天"迷你黄金周"，部分地区如杭州市在3天秋假结束后可直接进入10月1日至8日的国 庆假期，最长可连休11天，有效缓解了集中假期的出行压力并带动错峰旅游。秋假期间，中小学生及家 庭出行需求激增，全国亲子家庭出游占比超过53%，成都青城山-都江堰景区研学旅游活动参与度同比 增长 ...

Core Insights - The hotel industry is witnessing a transformation where spaces are being redefined to cater to remote workers and non-guests, creating a "third space" economy that aims to drive new revenue growth amidst overall industry pressure [1][2] Group 1: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting from paying for accommodation to paying for experiences and environments, with hotel lobbies becoming preferred spaces for remote work due to their amenities like stable WiFi and comfortable seating [2] - High-end hotel facilities such as gyms and pools are also attracting non-guests, with experience vouchers becoming popular on second-hand platforms [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - Leading hotel groups like Huazhu and Atour are focusing on the "third space" as a key strategy to counter industry challenges, with Atour reporting a 76.4% year-on-year increase in retail revenue, reaching 846 million yuan, which now constitutes 32.2% of total revenue [2][3] - Atour's strategy includes transforming hotel lobbies into multifunctional spaces that integrate retail and cultural experiences, with retail revenue share increasing from 13.8% in 2022 to 30.3% in 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Directions - The competition in the hotel third space is evolving towards precision and efficiency, focusing on consumer needs through differentiated experiences that enhance both non-room revenue and lodging services [4] - Future trends may include deeper integration of local culture, technology-driven immersive experiences, and enhanced membership systems as consumer demands continue to evolve [5]

小摩表示，今年迄今，华住集团、亚朵的表现(分别升41%及59%)显著优于锦江酒店及首旅酒店(分别跌 2%、升7%)，但仍建议投资者在12个月期间"增持"华住集团及亚朵酒店，因他们的品牌、产品更强劲带 来更清晰的长期增长前景，而估值与锦江酒店及首旅酒店一致，甚至更便宜。 从小摩消费论坛得出的要点表明，酒店行业的自律性胜预期，这对华住、亚朵有利。小摩的追踪数据也 显示，其覆盖的四家酒店中，在今年第四季度新增客房数量均有所放缓，而年初至今，华住、亚朵的扩 张速度明显快于锦江酒店、首旅酒店，显示行业整合趋势对华住、亚朵更有利。 首旅酒店 锦江B股 锦江酒店 华住集团-S 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 16.06 0.07 0.44% 1.75% 1.19% 0.56% 0.00% 0.56% 1.19% 1.75% 15.71 15.80 15.90 15.99 16.08 16.18 16.27 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 18万 36万 54万 摩根大通发布研报称，过去一个月，中国酒店股走势出现显著分化，华住集团-S(01179)及锦江酒店 （600754）(60 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports significant divergence in the performance of Chinese hotel stocks over the past month, with Huazhu Group and Jinjiang Hotels performing well, while Atour and ShouLai Hotels lag behind the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huazhu Group and Atour have seen stock price increases of 41% and 59% respectively this year, significantly outperforming Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, which have seen declines of 2% and an increase of 7% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the stock price movements are not entirely supported by fundamentals, indicating potential short-term upside for Huazhu Group due to upward risks in average revenue per available room (RevPAR) for Q4 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The self-discipline within the hotel industry has exceeded expectations, benefiting Huazhu and Atour [1] - The data shows a slowdown in the number of new rooms added in Q4 across the four tracked hotel companies, with Huazhu and Atour expanding at a faster rate than Jinjiang and ShouLai, indicating a trend of industry consolidation favoring Huazhu and Atour [1]

Core Viewpoint - H World Group (HTHT) received a buy rating due to strong Q2 results indicating continued engagement and growth potential [1] Company Analysis - The investment approach focuses on identifying undervalued companies with long-term growth potential, emphasizing value investing principles [1] - The strategy involves purchasing quality companies at a discount to their intrinsic value and holding them for long-term earnings and shareholder returns [1]