1）RevPAR：整体同比-8.3%，其中经济型酒店同比-9.1%，中档及以上酒店同比-7.9%；2）ADR：整体 同比-5.3%，其中经济型酒店同比-5.7%，中档及以上酒店同比-5.3%；3）OCC：整体同比-2.5pcts，其中 经济型酒店同比-2.9pcts，中档及以上酒店同比-2.1pcts。 机构：西部证券 研究员：曹锦瑜 事件：华住集团发布2025 年一季报。 业绩概况：公司于2025 年一季度实现营业收入54.0 亿元，yoy+2.2%，实现经营利润10.8 亿元， yoy+7.9%，实现归母净利润8.9 亿元，yoy+35.7%国内经营数据略有下滑，同店经营承压。整体层面， 2025Q1 华住中国RevPAR 同比-3.9%，ADR 同比-2.6%，OCC 同比-1.0pcts。同店经营层面： 门店规模扩张贡献业绩增长，品牌持续升级。规模上看，截至2025 年3 月31 日，Legacy-Huazhu 在营门 店数量为11564 家，环比增长539 家。品牌升级方面，汉庭、全季、桔子高版本门店占比持续提升：汉 庭3.5 及以上门店占比提升至40%，环比+4pcts；全季4.0 及以上版本门店 ...

Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 5.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with Legacy-Huazhu contributing 4.481 billion yuan, up 5.5% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the company was 1.496 billion yuan, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, with Legacy-Huazhu at 1.573 billion yuan, up 5.8% [1] - The company opened 704 new hotels and closed 166, resulting in a net increase of 538 hotels, with a focus on mid-to-high-end segments [1][3] Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 775 million yuan, reflecting a 0.5% increase year-on-year [1] - The overall revenue growth rate fell within the previously guided range of 0-4%, with management franchise revenue at 2.499 billion yuan, up 21.1% [2] - SG&A expenses for Q1 were 755 million yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, with a significant reduction of 11.1% in DH's SG&A expenses [2] Market Trends - The overall occupancy rate, ADR, and RevPAR for Q1 were 76.2%, 272 yuan, and 208 yuan, respectively, showing declines of 1.0 percentage points, 2.6%, and 3.9% year-on-year [2] - The company expects RevPAR to decline in Q2 2025 but anticipates a narrowing of the decline compared to Q1 [2] - The company has 277 million members, with CRS booking proportion increasing by 5.44 percentage points to 65.1% [3] Expansion Strategy - The company accelerated its opening of hotels, with a net increase of 539 hotels in Q1, including 59 mid-to-high-end hotels [3] - The company has completed its "Thousand Cities, Ten Thousand Stores 1.0" plan and is now advancing the 2.0 plan [3] - The current pipeline consists of 2,888 hotels, slightly down from the previous quarter, indicating a higher requirement for brand and product profitability from potential franchisees [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a first-quarter revenue that met expectations, with adjusted net profit remaining stable year-on-year, indicating resilience amid industry fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1, the company's hotel revenue was approximately 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while total revenue was about 5.4 billion RMB, up 2.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 894 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.7, primarily due to foreign exchange gains [1] - Adjusted net profit stood at 775 million RMB, showing no significant change year-on-year [1] Group 2: Domestic Hotel Operations - Domestic segment revenue reached 4.481 billion RMB, a growth of 5.5%, with direct-operated hotels generating 1.913 billion RMB (down 9.4%) and franchise hotels 2.472 billion RMB (up 21.1%) [1] - The overall RevPAR for domestic hotels decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down 8.3% [1] - The company had a total of 11,564 hotels in operation by the end of Q1, with 694 new openings and 155 closures, aiming for approximately 2,300 new openings for the year [1] Group 3: International Hotel Operations - Internationally, the company reported a revenue of 918 million RMB, a decline of 11.3%, with direct-operated store revenue down 11.2% [2] - The adjusted EBITDA for the international segment was -77 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses primarily due to the transition to a light-asset model and restructuring efforts [2] - The company plans to continue its loss reduction strategy throughout the year [2] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 1-5% in Q2, with domestic segment growth projected at 3-7% and franchise revenue expected to rise by 18-22% [2] - The management noted that the business market is stabilizing, and leisure travel demand remains resilient, with expectations for a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2 [3] - The company is focusing on high-quality expansion, with 43% of its operating hotels in third-tier cities and below, and 54% of its upcoming hotels in the same categories [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 unaudited financial performance, showing stable revenue growth but facing challenges in profit margins and RevPAR due to market conditions [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with leasing and owned hotels down 10.0% and franchise and licensed hotels up 21.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 780 million yuan, reflecting a 0.5% year-on-year growth, impacted by high income tax [1] - The overall revenue performance aligns with previous guidance, while gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points, and SG&A expenses decreased by 0.6 percentage points [1] Market Conditions - The hotel industry continues to experience supply-demand imbalance, with the company's RevPAR declining by 3.9% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a 2.6% drop in ADR [1] - Same-store RevPAR fell by 8.3%, indicating pressure from product quality upgrades and increased market supply [1] - Despite these challenges, the company opened 694 new hotels in Q1 2025, with a total of 2,865 stores in reserve as of the end of March 2025, 61.1% of which are mid-range and above [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to generate revenues of 24.857 billion yuan, 26.444 billion yuan, and 28.273 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4.0%, 6.4%, and 6.9% [2] - Projected net profits for the same period are 4.222 billion yuan, 5.011 billion yuan, and 5.701 billion yuan, with growth rates of 38.5%, 18.7%, and 13.8% respectively [2] - The company maintains a stable leading position in the market, with significant potential for brand expansion and globalization, leading to a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue of 5.4 billion yuan represents a 2.2% year-on-year increase, aligning with the guidance of 0%-4% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA and net profit for Q1 2025 were 1.5 billion yuan and 780 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 5.3% and 0.5% respectively [7] - The domestic hotel segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.7% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has a robust membership system and an attractive investment return model, which is expected to attract more franchisees and accelerate store expansion [7] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 21.882 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected growth of 9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025 [3] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3.926 billion yuan, representing a 29% increase compared to 2024 [3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.2% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The total number of domestic hotels reached 11,564, marking a 19.4% increase, with a net addition of 539 hotels in Q1 2025 [7] Market Position - The company’s current stock price is 28.7 HKD, with a market capitalization of 174.1 billion HKD [4] - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 29.0% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 82.7% [4] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 1%-5% in Q2 2025, with domestic hotel revenue projected to grow by 3%-7% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims to maintain a balance between expansion and internal strengthening, with a focus on high-quality growth despite uncertainties in the environment [5][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year, with direct-operated hotels down 9.4% and franchise hotels up 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The target for new openings in 2025 is approximately 2,300 hotels [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%, with direct-operated revenue down 11.2%. The company is transitioning 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model, which has impacted short-term performance [3][17] - The adjusted EBITDA for overseas operations was -77 million RMB, indicating increased losses primarily due to the transition to a light-asset model and restructuring efforts [3][17] Future Outlook - The company expects Q2 revenue growth of 1-5%, with domestic growth of 3-7% and franchise revenue growth of 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, aiming for at least flat or growth for the year [4][18] - The company continues to focus on brand upgrades, member direct sales, and light-asset strategies, with a significant portion of its hotels in lower-tier cities [4][18] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 1-5% in Q2, with domestic segments expected to grow by 3-7% and franchise revenue by 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, with a goal of at least maintaining or growing throughout the year [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year. Direct-operated hotels saw a decline of 9.4%, while franchise revenue increased by 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down by 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The company plans to open approximately 2,300 new hotels throughout the year [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%. The decline was primarily due to the transition of 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model and the closure of one direct-operated hotel. The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was -77 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses due to restructuring [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19] - The company has a shareholder return plan of 2 billion USD over three years, which adds marginal appeal to the investment [5][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 33.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 28.70 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of RMB 890 million, up 35.7% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, with rental and owned income accounting for 51.7% of total revenue, while management franchise and licensing contributed 46.3% [3][7]. - The overall hotel count reached 11,685, with 11,564 under the main brand and 121 under the DH division, indicating a net addition of 539 hotels in the reporting period [7]. - The gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points to 33.2%, driven by the light-asset strategy, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.72 percentage points to 14.46% [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in RevPAR as the peak season approaches, despite short-term pressures from competition and economic factors [7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.68 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 15%, and 14.6% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.20, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.58 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x, indicating reasonable valuation [9][12]. - The total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.15 billion in 2025 to RMB 29.85 billion by 2027, reflecting a steady upward trend [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 33.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 28.70 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of RMB 890 million, up 35.7% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, with rental and owned income accounting for 51.7% of total revenue, while management franchise and licensing contributed 46.3% [3][7]. - The overall hotel count reached 11,685, with 11,564 under the main brand and 121 under the DH division, indicating a net addition of 539 hotels [7]. - The gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points to 33.2%, driven by reduced operating costs due to the light-asset strategy [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in RevPAR as the peak season approaches, despite short-term pressures from competition and economic factors [7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.68 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 15%, and 14.6% [9][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.20, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.58 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x, indicating reasonable valuation [9][12]. - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.15 billion in 2025 to RMB 29.85 billion by 2027 [12].

港股华住集团(01179.HK)绩后跌近3%，公司一季度总收入53.95亿元，同比增加2.22%。 ...