Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 18 to HKD 21, indicating a potential upside of 15.6% [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to return to double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by strategic pricing initiatives that enhance user numbers and order volumes. Despite a short-term decline in gross profit margin in the second half of 2024, improvements in procurement negotiations and increased contributions from self-controlled brands are anticipated to stabilize margins in 2025 [2][6]. - Operating expenses have significant room for reduction through more efficient logistics and automation, which is expected to support a continued upward trend in profit margins. The company plans to maintain a growth rate of nearly 1,000 new stores, with over half of the growth coming from lower-tier markets [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 16,741 million, with a slight decrease of 0.3% from previous estimates. Gross profit is expected to be RMB 4,303 million, reflecting a 0.2% increase [5][14]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 25.7% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach RMB 681 million, maintaining an operating margin of 4.1% [5][14]. - The adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 777 million for 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [5][14]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 0.89%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.65 and a low of HKD 14.24. The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 13,469.82 million [4][14]. User Engagement and Market Expansion - The average monthly active users (MAU) and annual transaction users are expected to grow by 17.2% and 24.8% respectively in 2024. The number of factory stores has increased by 965 to a total of 6,874, with lower-tier markets accounting for 58.2% of the store count [6][7]. - The company has also integrated AI models like DeepSeek into its core business operations to enhance store operational efficiency [6]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next few years, with significant growth expected in both revenue and net profit by 2027 [14][15].
途虎-W：预计2025年收入重回双位数增长，利润率平稳提升-20250323