TENCENT(00700) 申万宏源·2025-03-23 08:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5][7] Core Views - Tencent's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 174.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and adjusted net profit of 55.3 billion RMB, up 30% year-on-year [7] - The company is accelerating its AI ecosystem development, with significant contributions from gaming, advertising, and financial technology sectors [7] - The target price is set at 684 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 34% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 719.9 billion RMB - 2026E: 779.4 billion RMB - 2027E: 833.3 billion RMB - Adjusted net profit forecasts: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 251.3 billion RMB - 2026E: 282.2 billion RMB - 2027E: 311.3 billion RMB - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates: - 2023: 16.68 RMB - 2024: 24.03 RMB - 2025E: 27.32 RMB - 2026E: 30.69 RMB - 2027E: 33.85 RMB - Return on equity (ROE) projections: - 2023: 19.5% - 2024: 22.4% - 2025E: 20.9% - 2026E: 19.73% - 2027E: 18.49% [4][10] Company Commentary - The gaming segment showed strong performance with domestic and overseas revenues growing by 23% and 15% respectively in Q4 2024, with new titles contributing significantly [7] - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 grew by 17%, driven by AI enhancements, with video account advertising increasing over 60% [7] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 3% in Q4 2024, with notable growth in enterprise WeChat and AI cloud services [7] - Capital expenditures for 2024 were 76.8 billion RMB, representing 12% of revenue, with plans for lower double-digit capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue in 2025 [7]