农林牧渔行业专题：3月USDA上调全球玉米、小麦产量，大豆产量环比持平

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The USDA's March 2025 forecast indicates an increase in global wheat production to 797.23 million tons for the 2024/25 season, up 6.44 million tons from the previous year, with consumption also rising to 806.65 million tons [4][29] - Global corn production is projected to be 1.214 billion tons for 2024/25, a decrease of 13.92 million tons year-on-year, while consumption is expected to rise to 1.23919 billion tons [7][11] - The soybean market shows stable production at 421 million tons, with consumption increasing to 409 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 1.214 billion tons, a decrease of 13.92 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to increase by 20.22 million tons to 1.23919 billion tons [11][19] - The ending stock for corn is projected to be 288.94 million tons, down 25.01 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.3%, the lowest since the 2016/17 season [11][12] - In China, corn production is expected to reach 295 million tons, with imports decreasing to 8 million tons, reflecting a tightening domestic supply [19][21] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to reach 797.23 million tons for 2024/25, an increase of 6.44 million tons from the previous year, with consumption rising to 806.65 million tons [29][30] - The ending stock for wheat is projected at 260.08 million tons, down 9.42 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 25.6% [29][31] - China's wheat imports are forecasted to decrease to 6.5 million tons, a drop of 1.5 million tons from the previous year [30] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted to remain stable at 421 million tons, with consumption increasing to 409 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5] - The ending stock for soybeans is projected to be 121 million tons, reflecting a decrease in the stock-to-use ratio to 20.5% [4][5]